With US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran underway (resulting in the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and with Iran responding more than effectively, and with Pakistan carrying out its own airstrikes against Afghanistan in response to terrorist attacks inside Pakistan), the regional security environment has entered an exceptionally volatile phase. Multiple theatres of conflict have opened simultaneously, and their interaction will shape Pakistan’s strategic choices in the days and weeks ahead.

Pakistan shares a long and sensitive border with Iran, and any sustained bombing campaign there carries serious implications. Even if Pakistan is not directly involved in that theatre, the risks of spillover are real. Refugee flows, cross-border militant movement, sectarian tensions, and economic disruption in border regions such as Balochistan are all plausible consequences. Pakistan cannot assume insulation from events unfolding to its west. The destabilisation of Iran, even temporarily, would alter the strategic balance across Pakistan’s western flank and could create opportunities for hostile actors to exploit.

At the same time, Pakistan’s military actions against terrorist infrastructure inside Afghanistan have drawn tacit and explicit support from several key international actors. All of Pakistan’s Muslim allies, as well as the European Union and the United States, have backed Pakistan’s position that its actions are being conducted in self-defence. This support rests on a clear and widely understood reality: Pakistan has faced repeated terrorist attacks launched from Afghan territory, where militants have been provided haven, logistical support, and operational freedom by elements associated with the Afghan Taliban. These attacks have targeted both civilian and military installations, undermining Pakistan’s internal stability and economic recovery.

This diplomatic backing provides Pakistan with a critical window of opportunity. To........

© The Friday Times