Crossroads Asia | Economy | Central Asia

What If Russia Asks Kazakhstan for Fuel?

Kazakhstan could plug Russia’s current gasoline deficit, but it’s a risk. Astana struggles already with self-sufficiency.

Kazakhstan could be ready to make an exception to its ban on fuel exports, if Russia asks for emergency supplies. This is what emerged last week, when Reuters reported sources as saying that Russia had requested a one-off shipment of petroleum products from Kazakhstan. Astana has curtailed exports in an effort to meet domestic demand.

But with Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s refineries, in response to Moscow’s war of aggression, now in its fifth year, the Russian fuel market is in trouble.

On June 24, according to Reuters, Russia asked Kazakhstan for 50,000 tons of AI-92 fuel, the most common type of gasoline in the region, to make up with the current shortages. That’s around 25 percent of the country’s total output.

Kazakhstan’s government did not immediately comment, with the energy ministry noting that it did not receive an official request from the Russian side. Deputy Minister of Economy Azamat Amrin told the press, “When there is a concrete decision, we will let you know.”

On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that the country is facing a gasoline deficit, due to ongoing repairs at key refining facilities hit by Ukraine’s drones.

“Obviously, these attacks on our infrastructure create problems. That’s obvious. As of now, we are observing a certain deficit, which is not critical,” Putin said.

For the first time in years, in the past few months the Russian government has partially banned the export of certain petroleum products, some of which it used to sell also to Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan has long experienced an unstable balance when it comes to petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene, and jet fuel.

The country’s three refineries date back to the Soviet era, though they have undergone significant repair works. The Atyrau refinery, located in Kazakhstan’s so-called “oil capital,” is the latest to shut down for scheduled maintenance. The repair work, which began on June 26, will halt output until July 15.

Kazakhstan’s quest for self-sufficiency has repeatedly been tested over the years, with the government and experts taking turns in advocating for the construction of a fourth refinery. While rumors to that effect have spread for around two decades, a final decision has not been made. Instead, the oil sector’s press is being polluted with announcements of a “10 million tons, $10 billion refinery to be commissioned by 2033,” without there being a........

© The Diplomat