An adage says economists have predicted twelve of the last five recessions, and something similar can be said about apocalyptic warnings. Nevertheless, false warnings of the apocalyptic do not delegitimize all warnings. It was former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, hardly an isolationist, who said in 2003 that “it was luck that prevented nuclear war.”

Late Sunday night, Tucker Carlson warned that our luck might be running out. In a lengthy X post, he claimed, “Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran.” Carlson was immediately chastised for being a “conspiracy theorist,” with geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer calling the post “ludicrous and false.”

If Carlson’s detractors are correct, and the United States and Israel are not considering nuclear strikes against Iran, the White House should just say so. While President Donald Trump clarified two weeks ago that he “wouldn’t use nuclear [weapons],” he has also threatened to eviscerate Iranian civilization, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth mocking “Iranians that think they’re gonna live.” The administration, to put it mildly, sends mixed signals.

Regarding Pickaxe........

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