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DAVID BLACKMON: Treat Early Venezuela Cost Estimates With Caution

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Various estimates for the cost of revitalizing Venezuela’s once-powerful oil sector are already rolling out, and the number one caution for news consumers is clear: Pay no attention to the headline number. Instead, dig deep into the details of the report before jumping to any conclusions. A report released Monday by Rystad Energy provides a good example.

The headline on a story at Energy Voice reads as follows: “Venezuela needs $183bn to revive oil output, Rystad says.” To be sure, $183 billion is a big number in any company’s budget, one which, without proper context, seems near-unattainable to the casual reader. What in the world is Trump thinking, some readers who don’t move past the headline into the details of the story will be left wondering. (RELATED: Beyond Oil, Trump May Be Able To Grasp Other Treasures In Venezuela)

So, let’s go past that headline and explain why that topline number really isn’t unattainable and is in fact pretty digestible for the likely players who could become involved in the effort:

The first thing to know is that the $183 billion estimate covers a span of 15 years and thus comes to a more manageable $12 billion capital outlay per year — roughly the price tag for a single new mid-size refinery or LNG export facility.

It includes an estimated $53 billion of capital costs required to keep production at current levels, reducing the additional needs to an even more manageable $8.7 billion per year.

It is an estimate of what it would take to restore Venezuelan production to 3.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from its current level of less than 1 million bpd. In other words, it’s the stretch goal for the long term, rather than an assessment of the........

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