Almost two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there are no signs of a military victory for either side. Nor are there clear prospects of a ceasefire, let alone a negotiated settlement. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow are willing to compromise on their stated war aims – but neither has a clear path to achieving them.

All that Russia and Ukraine can muster for now are the resources to prevent the other side from winning, at the cost of more human suffering, in particular in Ukraine.

At the end of 2022, momentum appeared to be on Ukraine’s side. A successful counteroffensive had delivered significant territorial gains around Kharkiv in the north and forced Russia to withdraw from Kherson in the south.

Over the following months, Russia made a number of symbolic gains, capturing Soledar in January 2023 and Bakhmut in May. Both came at a huge cost to Moscow, especially in terms of human lives. But they also demonstrated the Kremlin’s determination – and ability – to prevail.

A much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June. But it took longer to get underway than had been planned and failed to replicate the successes of the previous year. As a result, Ukraine was able to make only small territorial gains by the end of the year – especially along the frontline in the Zaporizhia region in the south.

More successful, albeit less consequential for the overall war, were Ukraine’s successful efforts to diminish Russian naval capabilities in the Black Sea and forcing the Black Sea fleet to redeploy from Crimea to bases on the Russian mainland.

Over the past few weeks, some........

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