Things are not exactly going to plan for Moscow in the Arctic – an area that is a strategic military region for Russia and has significant economic potential that could help Russia in propping up its war economy. Yet, a combination of Ukrainian military capabilities, western pushback and the pressure of international sanctions have put a dent into Russian hopes to use the Arctic to its advantage in the war against Ukraine.

As tensions with the west rapidly grew in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia significantly expanded the number of its military facilities in the Arctic. Russia’s substantial and sustained investment into building up a military advantage means that it now has more airbases, ground forces and ships in the region than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This includes the powerful northern fleet, which is home to the majority of Russia’s nuclear submarine strike force.

This investment in military capabilities and infrastructure initially paid off in the war against Ukraine as Russia was able to bring its Arctic airbases into use. Early in the war bombers were moved further away from Ukraine and into the relative safety of the high north.

Yet, at the end of July 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked the Olenya airbase south of Murmansk. This was believed to be in retaliation for bombers based there being involved in the strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. With more long-range Ukrainian drones, the apparent advantage of Russia’s Arctic bases, if not gone, has at least been significantly diminished.

The west has........

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