Thousands of slips in Tairāwhiti in January. The loss of eight lives in the Bay of Plenty later that month. And, days ago, landslides that damaged homes, forced evacuations and blocked roads across the North Island.

With each bout of extreme rainfall in New Zealand, landslides are becoming an increasingly familiar consequence.

They are already one of Aotearoa’s most costly and dangerous natural hazards, causing an estimated NZ$250–300 million in damage each year and, over the past 200 years, more deaths than volcanic eruptions and earthquakes combined.

In a warming world, the key challenge now facing scientists is understanding just where in New Zealand landslides are most likely to strike in the future.

New advances in technology are now helping us do this, with the potential to inform hazard planning – and ultimately save lives.

Why a warming climate means more landslides

New Zealand has always been highly exposed to landslides due to its steep terrain and weak sedimentary rocks. In many areas, this susceptibility has been increased by the removal of protective forest cover.

High rainfall has also long provided a trigger. As soils become saturated by heavy downpours,........

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