By Denis Bright
The tidal wave swing against Labor in the Ipswich West by-election on 16 March 2024 created no ripples on the stagnant Bremer River.
Historic struggles on behalf of the Labor Movement will come and go in the future without any lasting effects from the by-election results. The Timothy Molony Oval in front of St. Mary’s Church is usually the venue convivial Labor Day socials and even the starting point for a protest march against the Bjelke-Petersen Government over the dismissal of railway employees for extended strike action during the early 1980s. I can see the same thing happening in the future if David Crisafulli and Peter Dutton take power on behalf of an older style LNP support base.
Even if Labor were to lose government on 25 October 2024, its support base would soon bounce back as in the Can Do Days of Premier Campbell Newman (2012-15) whose government was soon out of its depth in delivering for the people of Queensland. In those days, the state LNP promised to reduce the state debt, now the promise is about reducing crime.
With all the additional police and judicial resources developed to fighting and preventing crime, does the LNP really believe that Labor is soft on crime?
The chorus about Labor being soft on crime came from the Murdoch press with the support of eyewitness news reports. Stocking up fear is a misplaced political game strategy that seems to work in outer metro suburbs and regional areas. Crime embedded in cultural disadvantage. It has been a curse across Queensland even though overall crime rates present a complex challenge as noted by Griffith university criminologist, Michael Townsley (ABC News 26 November 2023). This is an excellent price of ABC journalism.
The state-wide Newspoll of voting intentions across Queensland was released in The Australian on the eve of the Ipswich West by-election. The Newspoll indicated the prospect of a 9.6 percent decline in Labor’s primary vote since the last state election on 31 October 2020. The swing against Labor on a TPP basis was 7.2 percent as support for the Greens on 13 percent ( 3.5 percent since 2020) moderated the swing against Labor. The absence of a Green Party candidate at the Ipswich West by-election removed this moderating effect on the swing against Labor. These swings against Labor were more than excelled in the Ipswich West by-election.
By-elections provide opportunities for local conservatives in Ipswich to mount populist campaigns on issues like crime and self-perceived neglect of the city. At a state level, these campaigns hit their mark in the seat of Ipswich on the eve of the Great Depression in 1929 and again in 1974, 1998 and 2012.
Darren Zanow’s campaign excelled in the use of these superlatives.
In the provision of public health services for Ipswich, the LNP chose to overlook problems associated with years of neglect by the federal LNP in support for the Commonwealth-state health agreements and long-term failure to fund renumerations paid for highly expensive specialist and diagnostic services. Disadvantaged voters should ask their GPs to add a statement about financial disadvantage to their medical referrals. They will usually be bulk billed as a result of this initiative.
The transition in Labor leadership in Ipswich West from Ivor Marsden (MLA 1949-66) to Labor’s Vi Jordan produced a remarkably close result at thee 1966 state election. Labor retained the seat by a mere 227 votes after preferences. Labor bounced back with a swing of 11.3 percent after preferences at the next state election in 1969 with further swings in 1972. Defeat came again for Labor in Ipswich West on 7 December 1974 when the populist campaign by Joh Bjelke-Petersen reduced Labor to eleven members after the loss of 22 Labor seats.
Even in 1974 when Labor had the advantage of a largely unionized local workforce in manufacturing and railway workshops, populist campaigns could work against Labor. This is not the case in the contemporary workforce in Ipswich.
A half century later, the Ipswich West electorate offers a very diverse demography between semi-rural western components and suburbs like Chuwar, Karalee and Barellan Point on the fringes of Brisbane’s wealthy mortgage-belt suburbs in the Moggill electorate.
Excuses aside, the swing to LNP candidate Darren Zanow exceeded all expectations. Labor candidate Wendy Bourne may have retained the seat if the Green Party had decided to endorse a candidate. The flow of preferences from the Legalise Cannabis Queensland (LCQ) were not strong enough to retain the seat for Labor:
Three consecutive terms of Labor representation in Ipswich West since 2015 were certainly not cast aside after robust policy debates. The populist campaign from the LNP and One Nation hit the electorate with a thump as in previous occasions when Labor lost the seat to conservative opponents. In the pre-depression era both the seats of Rosewood and Ipswich fell to the conservative on the mantra of giving young people a chance for work as the global financial crisis approached.
As in 1929, the result in Ipswich West is a tragedy for the Queensland government. The 2022-23 budget delivered $1.3 billion in capital works for Ipswich City across the three state seats in Ipswich. This is around ten percent of the state’s total capital works spending. In a growing city, this extraordinary expenditure is easily absorbed into the routine provision of roads, hospital services, schools and a wide range of community services (Queensland Budget Papers).
Commitment of $59.2 million in social housing for Ipswich in the 2022-23 budget was never acknowledged in the LNP’s populist campaign strategies.
Given the warnings prior to the by-election in Ipswich West on 16 March 2024, the people of Queensland deserve a new team of media communicators to deliver messages of hope to voters in outer metropolitan and regional seats before the David Crisafulli style is perhaps successfully transferred to the state election campaign prior to 25 October 2024.
Fortunately, the Queensland election date is still a few months away.
However, there are communication problems between some Labor policy elites at both federal and state levels with more disadvantaged voters in regional and outer metropolitan areas. The 2022 Australian election result swings did not extend to most of Queensland. Queensland Labor was left with just five members of the House of Representatives and just three out of a total of twelve Queensland senators.
In Maryborough, state local member Bruce Saunders knows how to handle this problem with his commitment to local manufacturing industries and active community development programmes, appropriate for a regional heritage city. Maryborough once posed problems for Labor candidates prior to the arrival of Bruce Saunders on the state political scene.
The communication theories to bring government back to the needs of people are well developed. Some Labor’s policy elites in all states and territories have obvious links to lobbyists from corporate giants and firms from the global military industrial complexes. Readers should take a glance at the LinkedIn site in their own locality to peruse these quite obvious but still circumstantial connections.
Ohio State University’s Communications department has long been a champion of progressive media communication but there are literally dozens of exponents.
The Ohio State University’s journalism department has been involved in developments in communication theory, particularly in areas where digital media, changing audiences, and the evolving role of journalism intersect. Here are some examples:
Faculty Research
Projects and Initiatives
I became an instant fan of Associate Professor Gerald Kosicki when I looked at his work some years ago. This is very relevant to the construction of alternatives to the David Crisafulli style of campaigning which hit its targets in Ipswich West and Inala on 16 March 2024.
In support of Premier Steven Miles, I must add that by-election results must not distract Labor from delivering good government for Queensland, including tough on crime strategies.
Premier Miles delivered the prospect of additional police resources to Ipswich during the by-election campaign.
The notion that Labor is soft on crime is totally ridiculous and a distracting ruse by conservative populists to bring down the government of Queensland on 25 October 2024 and the federal government likewise in 2025.
As global economic conditions worsen as in 1929, opportunities will soon dry up under the austerity programmes from the LNP in government at all levels.
Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.
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