A new opinion poll suggests that Reform UK could take a surprise lead in next week’s Caerphilly by-election, with Plaid Cymru close behind and Labour trailing in third, a remarkable shift in one of Wales’s long-standing Labour strongholds.

The survey, carried out by Survation for Camlas Public Affairs, asked just over 500 voters in Caerphilly for their current voting intention. The results showed Reform UK on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38%, and Labour falling to 12%. The findings were first........

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