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Israel’s election this week was so close that neither of the contending coalitions—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s or the opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot—may emerge with the majority needed to govern. The question now is this: Does it matter which side ultimately wins?

It depends on the subject. When it comes to whether Israel resumes its war against Iran, the election’s outcome will make some difference. As for curbing the violence of Jewish settlers in the West Bank, it might have a little bit of impact. On the war in Gaza, there is no daylight between the coalitions. And on the prospect of settling the broad conflict between Jews and Palestinians, the election uncloaked an aspect of Israeli politics that will likely worsen tensions, regardless of the final vote count.

The key factor is this. Hamas’ murderous raid of Oct. 7, 2023; Israel’s wildly excessive retaliation; and the inability of outside parties to impose an arrangement that ends the war, empowers a peaceful Palestinian Authority, and repairs the devastation in Gaza—all of these acts of ultraviolence and neglect have frozen Israeli politics in a state of seemingly permanent trauma.

Hamas will not disarm until Israel withdraws from Gaza; Israel will not withdraw until Hamas disarms. Both positions are, in their way, understandable. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Israelis—even those who were once lefties or pacifists—consider it suicidal to so much as think about surrendering territory to Palestinians, much less negotiating a separate Palestinian state.

One surprising outcome of the election made this fact all too clear. Israel’s Arab parties won 19 parliamentary seats—almost twice as many as the 10 they won in the prior election. If either of the two main Jewish candidates—Netanyahu or Eisenkot—invited the Arabs to join his coalition, he would gain more than enough seats to win a majority and thus lead the........

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