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This week, it’s Nevada Republicans’ turn to choose their party’s presidential nominee. The process is simple. On Tuesday, they go to the polls and vote for a candidate. Oh, except the candidate most of them want, Donald Trump, will not be on the ballot, which has led to mass confusion.

Nikki Haley will be on the ballot, though. So will “none of the above.” Oh, and there are no delegates at stake in this primary. To have their votes matter, Nevada Republicans will have to participate in Thursday’s party-run caucus, in which Trump will be an option but Haley won’t.

Got all that?

“Meltdown” is never what a state has in mind as it tries to create a sensible means of selecting a presidential nominee. But over the course of the past few years, a series of feet stepped on a series of rakes, and here we are. Now, there’s a baffling split between a MAGA-controlled caucus and a separate primary exhibition match. But even though neither contest will feature both remaining contenders, the results could still be important in how they frame the race going forward.

The story of Nevada’s primary confusion begins with a previous early-voting state screw-up. After the tech debacle that was the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucus, other states long hoping to oust Iowa as the nation’s first nominating contest made their move. At the urging of, among others, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose advocacy for Nevada to vote first was a legacy project, the state in 2021 passed a law switching the nominating contests from caucuses to state-run primaries to be held on the first Tuesday in February of a presidential election year.

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Team Trump, however, still preferred a party-run caucus to a state-run primary. Caucuses tend to attract a smaller, more devoted MAGA electorate. And having that caucus run by the party helps Trump, because the Nevada GOP is stacked with Trump loyalists. How loyal are they? Well, the chair and vice chair of the state party have each been indicted for submitting false certificates to Congress on Trump’s behalf following the 2020 election.

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And so, the Nevada GOP opted to hold caucuses anyway, and to allocate delegates to the Republican National Committee according to the caucus results. Further, the party ruled that candidates who choose to participate in the GOP primary—which the Nevada GOP couldn’t prevent from taking place—cannot compete in the caucus.

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Haley chose to participate in the primary, having determined (reasonably, as these things go!) that the caucus was “rigged for Trump.” And with Ron DeSantis having ending his campaign in January, Trump faces only negligible competition from Texas pastor Ryan Binkley in the caucus. The state’s 26 delegates are his.

But delegate collection is a secondary concern in the early states, which are about building momentum and shaping narratives. And there are a couple of headlines that could nevertheless emerge from the twin pageants in Nevada and sway perceptions heading into South Carolina.

First, Haley could win the primary with more raw votes than Trump wins in the caucuses, an apples-to-oranges comparison that desperate campaigns nevertheless can spin to their liking. Primaries are, by their nature, more high-turnout events than caucuses. You can vote at any time on primary day, and Nevada now offers mail-in and early voting options. Caucuses, meanwhile, require you to show up at a stinky high school gym or other place of assembly after work when you could be doing, oh, anything else. And though Trump supporters are notoriously loyal folks, turnout could be exceptionally low given that the outcome is essentially determined. Haley’s ability to tout such a raw vote differential is reportedly of concern to the Trump team (although they deny it publicly).

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One problem for Haley, though, is that even in having a primary to herself, her support in the state is quite tepid.

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“I just don’t think she has the raw support in Nevada” for the outcome of “more raw votes” than Trump, Dan Lee, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told me. “And I feel like she sees that, which is why she hasn’t campaigned in Nevada. Right after New Hampshire, she kind of just skipped over it and went straight to South Carolina. And so I don’t think her own campaign really sees that as a potential.”

But a risk for Haley in not having “spent a dime or an ounce of energy on Nevada,” as her campaign manager put it, isn’t just that she’ll fail to win more raw votes in her contest than Trump wins in his. She could, in fact, lose the Nevada primary to a candidate unique to Nevada ballots: “None of these candidates.”

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That line appears on ballots for statewide contests in Nevada. And the Trump campaign and his allies are telling GOP voters—many of whom don’t understand why Trump isn’t on the primary ballot they’ve had delivered to them by mail—to either not vote, or to vote for “none of these candidates.” Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo, for one, has said that he will vote for “none of these candidates” in the primary and then caucus for Trump on Thursday. And while the polling in Nevada is both scant and unreliable, there’s some indication that “none of these” could indeed prevail over Haley.

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“Between these options—she wins more votes than Trump, or ‘none of these candidates’ wins—I would put my money on ‘none of these candidates’ winning,” Lee told me.

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I’m just a simple country pundit. But it strikes me that losing a primary to a conceptual ballot line would be embarrassing, and that it wouldn’t give Haley’s campaign the juice its needs to close the gap in South Carolina later this month. It also strikes me, though, that the Haley campaign has considered this and determined that the risk of putting in effort to defeat “none of these candidates,” and then still losing, would be even worse. She remains in a poor position to win the Republican presidential nomination.

In the meantime, thoughts and prayers to Nevada, where there’s always hope that one day its caucus and primary can unify into a single coherent presidential nominating contest.

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QOSHE - Will the Real Nevada Primary Please Stand Up? - Jim Newell
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Will the Real Nevada Primary Please Stand Up?

10 6
06.02.2024
Tweet Share Share Comment

This week, it’s Nevada Republicans’ turn to choose their party’s presidential nominee. The process is simple. On Tuesday, they go to the polls and vote for a candidate. Oh, except the candidate most of them want, Donald Trump, will not be on the ballot, which has led to mass confusion.

Nikki Haley will be on the ballot, though. So will “none of the above.” Oh, and there are no delegates at stake in this primary. To have their votes matter, Nevada Republicans will have to participate in Thursday’s party-run caucus, in which Trump will be an option but Haley won’t.

Got all that?

“Meltdown” is never what a state has in mind as it tries to create a sensible means of selecting a presidential nominee. But over the course of the past few years, a series of feet stepped on a series of rakes, and here we are. Now, there’s a baffling split between a MAGA-controlled caucus and a separate primary exhibition match. But even though neither contest will feature both remaining contenders, the results could still be important in how they frame the race going forward.

The story of Nevada’s primary confusion begins with a previous early-voting state screw-up. After the tech debacle that was the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucus, other states long hoping to oust Iowa as the nation’s first nominating contest made their move. At the urging of, among others, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose advocacy for Nevada to vote first was a legacy project, the state in 2021 passed a law switching the nominating contests from caucuses to state-run primaries to be held on the first Tuesday in February of a presidential election year.

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Team Trump, however, still preferred a party-run caucus to a state-run primary.........

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