Trump said just before midnight Washington time that he has a deal with Canada to avoid 50% tariffs, and thus the tariffs are on pause for three days. Although that may not be the case a few more seconds from now. Just ask Iran. Whoops, here we go already. Canada has already disputed the existence of any deal.

If midnight strikes on the eve of August 19th without Canadian government negotiators agreeing to Trump’s demands, then Canada faces “50% tariffs,” Trump had warned. Except now, apparently, Canada has a deal with Trump. For three days. Clock it. Best to check that reservation again before leaving the house, though.

The reality is that most exports to the US from Canada are already covered under a North American free trade agreement that also includes Mexico. And the Canadian government has spent the past several months educating the country’s companies about how they can feasibly ensure that their own products can qualify under that deal. Which leaves, what exactly? Canadian booze. Canadian hockey gear. Canadian wood and paper products.

Almost all of the US’s particleboard comes from Canada. And the overwhelming majority of its softwood lumber, wood products, and paper. Way down the list as the second supplier is – China. Trump has called Canadian leadership “nasty” for not letting him grab them by the wood, but he’s also called China cheats, rip-off artists, and a “total disaster” in past remarks.

Yet you’d think that the US has actual options from the way that........

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