Continuing from my previous posting, “A More Careful Look at Gambling Behavior and Addiction,“ this adds some extracted examples of gamblers with illusions of winning that—on average—wipe out their life savings.
So many complex phenomena of nature may be mathematically explained as randomly picking a number a gazillion times. That is wonderful, for chance provides us with a dynamic world. On the other hand, that's a world where compulsive gamblers could, and do, go bankrupt.
Part of the blame comes from a misconstrued illusion of luck, that one has it or doesn't. The amateur gambler consciously understands that the long-term effects of wagers depend on nature’s entropic flow of matter and energy mathematically causing a uniform drift of luck in favor of the house’s baited treasury. But they gamble anyway.
At Foxwoods, I met Walter, a man who lost two houses. “I have to get them back,” he said. “It’ll be slots or blackjack or roulette. I know I can do it…I’ve been there before.” His friend, Barney had just completed the so-called International Slots Tournament sponsored by the casino, of course. So, there they were, seventy-five contestants repeatedly hitting GO buttons as quickly as possible. In one-half hour, each player in the running would have hit GO between five and six thousand times.
“I come here weekends and most Tuesdays and Wednesdays,” Barney said. Four years ago, I won $100,000 on a penny machine and I’ve been coming back ever since.” They take out a good chunk in taxes but, hey, when you walk away with $67,000 in your pocket you feel pretty good.”
“How does that happen?” I asked.
“Only once at that size, but I sometimes win a thousand bucks and that makes me happy too.”
“So, in the past four years since your big win, have you spent $67,000 in gambling or are you still ahead?”
“Oh, I’m still ahead.”
Barney wouldn’t tell me how much he was ahead. Gamblers often forget most of their losses.
Four hours later I returned to see how Barney was doing. I found him at a Bally Bonus 7s, a five-reel machine with several mixed sevens symbols that paid highest on identical sevens. He had won another $100. When I asked him how much it cost him, he reached into his pocket and pulled out a red spiral notepad.
“I have it all written down here,” he said. “I came with $250, and I now have $230. Well, for twenty bucks I’m sure having a good time.”
“Do you know the odds of any of those machines?” I asked.
“I know the average odds of the Foxwoods machines. They have a 91 percent payback.”
“Well,” I snidely remarked, “doesn’t that mean that the casino will give you 91 cents for every dollar you give it?”
“Not at all,” he scoffed. “Yeah, they have a 9 percent average over me, but that’s pretty close to even odds.”
Like an amateur, he gambles on his law of averages due. It is a fallacy adopted when betting on games of pure luck from three mistaken beliefs: one, someone must win sometime: two, I have as good a chance as anyone else; and three, I really think my chances are pretty good. Barney’s assessment of his chances being pretty good comes from his belief that close to even odds means a good chance most of the time. But no! The good chance is always in the house's favor.
Barney was fortunate. Though he had a negligible understanding of odds, he did keep a notebook record of his losses, though I suspect his recorded losses wiggled from time to time. Barney will come out okay; he gambles for fun and seems to be careful with his accounts. Walter, however, is a gambler of concern. He lost two houses and still believed that with some luck he once had, he could win again.
By playing only games of pure luck he might get to a time when he will once again be ahead. But if he was ahead before, why did he keep gambling? Because he was there before. It is that gambler’s vicious cycle that comes from the illusion of luck. He believes that sooner or later he will have a winning streak. That may be true, but how much later?
References
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-speed-of-life/202311/a-more…
Joseph Mazur, What’s Luck Got to Do with It? The History of Mathematics and Psychology of The Gambler’s Illusion, (Princeton New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2010) 210.
Illusional Luck and Gambling
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01.12.2023
Continuing from my previous posting, “A More Careful Look at Gambling Behavior and Addiction,“ this adds some extracted examples of gamblers with illusions of winning that—on average—wipe out their life savings.
So many complex phenomena of nature may be mathematically explained as randomly picking a number a gazillion times. That is wonderful, for chance provides us with a dynamic world. On the other hand, that's a world where compulsive gamblers could, and do, go bankrupt.
Part of the blame comes from a misconstrued illusion of luck, that one has it or doesn't. The amateur gambler consciously understands that the long-term effects of wagers depend on nature’s entropic flow of matter and energy mathematically causing a uniform drift of luck in favor of the house’s baited treasury. But they gamble anyway.
At Foxwoods, I met Walter, a man who lost two houses. “I have to get them back,” he said. “It’ll be slots or blackjack or roulette. I know I can do it…I’ve been there before.” His friend, Barney had just completed the so-called International Slots........
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