Türkiye is one of the more powerful military forces in the region and solely in Asia Minor and has relatively high strategic autonomy in defence. It has also become much less dependent on other states for its essential defence needs in the recent ten years, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership provides it with access to one of the world’s most powerful collective defence arrangements. Türkiye is also the second biggest military power in NATO, after the United States of America (USA). Therefore, it is pertinent to ask why Türkiye had to join the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement made on 7 August. Is Ankara seeing a direct military threat from another country, or is it based on the other countries’ broader strategic calculations?

This article seeks to analyse how Türkiye participated in the agreement, the strategic advantages Ankara may have at its disposal and why it may have felt compelled to enter into such an agreement when it was already a key NATO member. First and foremost, the deal must be viewed in the shifting Middle East security landscape, including the current state of the security guarantees that the United States offers and the evolving dynamics between the United States, Israel, Iran, Türkiye and Arab states.

The Erosion of Confidence in US Security Guarantees

Not to say that some countries in the Gulf have grown more hesitant to trust America as their sole security provider. Recent developments have led to doubts as to whether Washington is ready to guarantee direct military support to its regional partners if they are attacked. One such example was the 2019 attack on the Saudi oil facilities, which was blamed on Iran in September. The United States was not involved in the attack directly and did not make a major military response.

A similar worry arose after the Israeli attack on Qatar in 2025. Again, America was powerless to stop the assault, and it did not militarily intervene on behalf of Israel. Such events might have created a sense among states in the region that the United States does not offer security guarantees on a level playing field but rather offers them to its allies unselectively.

But if it was not an Israeli attack, Washington at least would have tried to deter or retaliate against it from the point of view of some Gulf states. In either instance, however, the degree of American protection which might have been anticipated was unknown.

This is especially significant from a strategic point of view for Türkiye. Ankara is now posing a basic question: If a NATO ally or close U.S. ally were attacked by a stronger regional power, would the United States and other NATO allies “actually” step in?

Israel’s, Iran’s and Türkiye’s Strategic Calculations

Türkiye’s strategic concerns have also been shaped by the changing relationship between Israel and Iran. In February 2026, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly described Türkiye as the “new Iran.” Regardless of the precise political........

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