Does anyone else feel the strange sense of confidence going through Oilersnation right now?

Maybe strange isn’t the right word. Riding the rail of ups and downs like this Edmonton Oilers season has provided, being a part of many postgame shows where the flaws seem exposed and targeted, you have to laugh that, despite winning just two of their last six games, most fans expect the Oilers to destroy the Anaheim Ducks. 

But I’m right there with you. I expect it too. 

It goes to show how emotionally manipulative the full 82-game regular-season experience can be. For whatever reason, there has to be more frustration and concern than one would expect from a contender. 

Of course, none of that truly matters.

The playoffs have arrived, and thank goodness for that. The lack of a consistent defensive structure from October to February has improved mightily. They’ve endured.

Endured what could’ve been a gutshot injury to their second-best player in Leon Draisaitl, endured the early-season travel, and endured a concerning goalie trade.

We know the Oilers have been fortunate to play in the Pacific Division, finishing just 14th overall in the league. Nothing they can do about that. Through fortune or fate, there is a path laid with a red carpet toward the Western Conference Final.

When you’re in the Edmonton Oilers’ skates, you’re in the most difficult position in sports: anything less than a championship is considered a failure.

Everything is a high-wire act, where the grand mob below would cheer louder if you fell than survived. At the other end of the tightrope is transcendence. Never again an allegation that Connor McDavid that he can’t win the big game – that the Oilers are wasting the greatest modern player. Together, they can all be immortalized and inscribed on the Stanley Cup.

They can be champions. 

Some housekeeping points: 

Home road splits

One aspect of the Oilers’ season that can be labelled as their bread and butter is how strongly they’ve performed at home against their division. Their lone regulation loss in 13 games was the 5-1 defeat to the Vegas Golden Knights on April 4. 

Don’t hang a banner, but it’s worth knowing that the Oilers took advantage, with 45 per cent of their home wins coming vs the Pacific. 

Now, the road record in division is a tad more concerning, going 6-6-2, and that’s where early-season losses to Vancouver, Seattle, and faltering against Calgary come into play. Two wins in Vegas were key.  

But overall, since the end of the massive November road trip, the Oilers have been a great road team. They’ve gone 14-8-3 since November 29, with a .620 points percentage. 

In short, the Oilers’ home and road splits are opposite to each other. Dominant at home in the division, but weaker against the rest (12-13-3). Strong on the road, but not as much in the division. 

Some points of note as the Oilers hope to play two rounds against division opponents.

I wouldn’t be the first one to tell you that this playoff matchup feels like the 2017 playoffs, but in reverse for Edmonton. Heading into the series against the Sharks, the Oilers faced an experienced team coming off an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final.

Coincidentally, the Oilers then faced a hungrier Ducks team on the doorstep of winning a championship. You know the rest about goalie pads being held open and three-goal leads being squandered… 

Jan 26, 2026; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; The Edmonton Oilers celebrate a goal scored by forward Zach Hyman (18) during the first period against the Anaheim Ducks at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Why the Oilers can beat the Ducks 

The Oilers remain one of the best defensive teams in the league since the Olympic break. The changes in the defensive zone have been more pronounced, where forwards chase less at the blue-line and instead, the team packs and clogs the middle to block more shots. 

Nowhere is that seen more than Connor Murphy, who has 51 shot blocks since his first game in Edmonton on March 6, second in the NHL in that span. 

Conversely, it’s seen in the offensive zone where the third forward goes puck chasing below the opposition’s goalline. This symptom of their game leads to rush chances for the enemy, which killed the Oilers in the first half of the season. We’ll know the Oilers are on their game when they’re being patient with the puck, especially in the o-zone.  

The Oilers will win if they can break the Ducks’ forecheck. As important, they don’t cause any additional problems in their zone that the enemy has already created. Every team would love to control breakout on every chance, but that’s unrealistic. Sometimes a puck just needs to be chipped out. Those puck races in the neutral zone can also lead to off-script chances.  

With Draisaitl and Jason Dickinson back in the lineup, the Oilers........

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