The drama that played out in the House of Representatives over the last month as the Republicans tried to pick a speaker clearly demonstrated a party in total chaos. As Republicans were not able to agree on who should succeed Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the role, they rejected three candidates, all of whom had some degree of leadership experience. To end the soap opera and provide some answer to the narrative that Republicans in the House are incapable of governing, they finally landed on Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana for the role.
Not only is Johnson a complete neophyte when it comes to House leadership, he is as right wing and conservative a member of Congress as there is today.
A lot has been made of Johnson's MAGA credentials, especially his role as an election denier. He was a leading player in the House Republican legal maneuvering to overturn President Joe Biden's legitimate election victory. Not getting anywhere near as much attention is that Speaker Johnson is not only deeply pro-life, but he has been a major advocate for a national abortion ban.
I wrote a column a number of months ago talking about how critical the abortion issue is—especially when it comes to independent suburban women in swing states, who are the key demographic of the upcoming election. Not only was this issue of overwhelming importance to the Democrats in the 2022 elections, but has proved to be a defining issue in a number of states since then, most notably in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
I had indicated that the best scenario Democrats could hope for is that a national abortion ban would become a central tenet of the Republican Party going forward. Not that there is any likelihood that such a ban would ever become law, but by taking an ever-more absolutist view of abortion, Republicans would continue to galvanize independent women and the youth vote—against them.
The elevation of Johnson to the speakership is a gift to Biden's reelection effort. To put it in a more humorous light—Johnson makes a better gift of a speaker than anything that the great speaker manufacturer Bose could ever create. To have House Republicans unanimously vote in favor of a man who can so easily be branded anti-woman and anti-choice by virtue of being as far right as you can get on the issue of abortion, creates the best opportunity Biden could ask for to catalyze his reelection efforts among swing-state independent women.
Biden needed this gift. Recent polling on other issues has been absolutely devastating for him. In the critical swing state of Wisconsin, which Biden only won one by some 20,000 votes, recent polls indicate that 75 percent of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy. Inflation is a major factor in shaping perceptions of Biden's economic record and there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will bring prices down. Biden also gets bad reviews on immigration, which has now become of great concern to even blue-state Democrats. Of course, the age issue will continue to haunt him, and it is extremely difficult to see voter sentiment getting any more positive there. Moreover, there is great likelihood of a strong third-party challenger draining substantial support from Biden in key swing states.
One would think the voters' desire to uphold democratic values alone would put Biden ahead, let alone the many legal cases against Trump. Instead, Trump is actually leading in a number of recent swing-state surveys.
So, this may leave the abortion issue, with all the passion it rightfully generates among women across the political spectrum, as the issue on which Biden's re-election hopes depend.
At the congressional level, there is the opportunity to take back the House by winning key swing districts, including five in New York, that flipped to the Republican column last year. These are exactly the kind of districts where not only independent women, but also moderate Republican women would be deeply motivated to vote Democrat by their current representative's decision to elevate a religious ideologue to the speakership.
The traditional Republican position on abortion was that the issue should be left to the states, meaning that overturning Roe v. Wade was not a direct threat to the reproductive rights of women in blue states. A national abortion ban would totally upend that status quo, causing a new wave of political outcry from women. The gift of Mike Johnson's religious absolutism has the power to galvanize voters in a way no other issue currently does. This offers a boost Biden and Democrats running for Congress desperately need.
The number of abortions conducted in the country since Roe was overturned last year has actually gone up, according to recent reports. That's a result of women who live in states with strong restrictions traveling to areas where abortion is still available. A national ban would become a rallying point for the vast majority of American women, who will not put up with such a theocratic view of health care.
This opportunity to brand the Republican Party as more misogynistic than ever becomes even more important given that Trump will likely be the Republican 2024 nominee. Despite being responsible for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe, the former president has made it clear he understands how out of step the Republican Party is with the public. Trump will, no doubt, attempt to steer a somewhat more moderate approach on abortion than a national ban would represent.
If Trump was able, for instance, to grab the initiative and define his presidential campaign stance on the issue being the prohibition of abortion after 15 weeks—versus a Democratic position that Roe should be reinstated—he might be successful in defining the differences between those positions as far less consequential than what would be needed to really drive passionate voter turnout for Biden and congressional Democrats. That makes it all the more important that the gift of Speaker Johnson be deployed quickly. It is an opportunity to pound home the Republican party's embrace of someone for their government leadership who holds intractable beliefs that the government—and not a woman—should make decisions about their pregnancies.
As the saying goes, don't look a gift horse in the mouth—or, in this case, don't look a gift House in the mouth. And let's hope that this speaker has a very big mouth when it comes to his views on abortion.
Tom Rogers is executive chairman of Oorbit Gaming and Entertainment, an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC, is the former CEO of TiVo, and a member of Keep Our Republic, an organization dedicated to preserving the nation's democracy.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Speaker Mike Johnson Is Bad for Women's Health and That's Good for Dems
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30.10.2023
The drama that played out in the House of Representatives over the last month as the Republicans tried to pick a speaker clearly demonstrated a party in total chaos. As Republicans were not able to agree on who should succeed Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the role, they rejected three candidates, all of whom had some degree of leadership experience. To end the soap opera and provide some answer to the narrative that Republicans in the House are incapable of governing, they finally landed on Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana for the role.
Not only is Johnson a complete neophyte when it comes to House leadership, he is as right wing and conservative a member of Congress as there is today.
A lot has been made of Johnson's MAGA credentials, especially his role as an election denier. He was a leading player in the House Republican legal maneuvering to overturn President Joe Biden's legitimate election victory. Not getting anywhere near as much attention is that Speaker Johnson is not only deeply pro-life, but he has been a major advocate for a national abortion ban.
I wrote a column a number of months ago talking about how critical the abortion issue is—especially when it comes to independent suburban women in swing states, who are the key demographic of the upcoming election. Not only was this issue of overwhelming importance to the Democrats in the 2022 elections, but has proved to be a defining issue in a number of states since then, most notably in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
I had indicated that the best scenario Democrats could hope for is that a national abortion ban would become a central tenet of the Republican Party going forward. Not that there is any likelihood that such a ban........
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