New Delhi: In a few weeks from now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face voters for a third time in a decade. It is an election he is widely believed to win- only the margin of his victory is in doubt. Modi’s 370-seat target for the BJP is 98 seats more than a simple majority of 272 seats needed to form a government.
If space metaphors are applied to politics, then political parties are like rockets and governments are satellites. Rockets need to travel at 11.86 kilometres per second to generate the velocity required to leave earth’s gravitational pull and deliver satellites into orbit. Parties need to generate a 272-seat escape velocity to punch into secure five-year orbits.
When they seek a fresh mandate, incumbent governments go before the electorate with a report card of delivering good governance. The Modi government’s biggest achievement in the last five years has been to turn India into the world’s fastest growing major economy in a turbulent post-pandemic world. But it is the personal charisma of candidates like Modi exuding a somewhat unquantifiable rock star like appeal which powers such mandates.
Only three Indian PMs– Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi– have generated such velocity, in seven of 15 general elections before 2014. Leaders unable to produce this momentum hover in wobbly, near-earth orbit, at the mercy of the gravitational pulls of coalition partners and the fear of a fiery descent to earth. Prime Ministers Narasimha Rao, Manmohan Singh and AB Vajpayee know this feeling. So do President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, among leaders of a record 64 countries going to the polls this year, and are uncertain about returning. This is clearly not the case with PM Modi. “I have received invites from foreign countries to visit them in July, August and September; they also know that Modi is coming back to power,” the PM told party workers at a recent national convention.
Space travel has been on the PM’s mind lately. “If today the world feels that India is ready to take a big leap, then it has a powerful launch-pad of 10 years behind it,” the PM said while delivering the keynote address ‘India: Poised for The Next Big Leap’, at the TV Nine Global Summit on February 26. “In our third term we have to take India’s potential to new heights.” The next day, PM Modi was in Kerala to meet the four Indian astronauts who will fly into space on an Indian rocket in 2025, likely to be amongst his government’s biggest third-term milestones.
Modi’s journey from humble origins in Gujarat to the world stage is a space odyssey of sorts, from near earth orbit, to polar orbit and finally, interstellar travel. Six Indian PMs before Modi have been Chief Ministers. None have vaulted straight into the PMO. All Modi’s achievements have been on the back of development, corruption-free governance and some far-sighted moves. As CM in 2012, Modi unveiled a pilot project to put solar panels installed atop canals— a solution to save water and generate clean energy. In 2023, the state of California began a first-of-its-kind scheme to build solar canals in the US.
In March 2013, a European diplomat at the India Today conclave who had queued up to listen to Modi told me he was there because “that’s the next Prime Minister of India speaking.” His statement then seemed like an intuitive leap because the then Gujarat CM had more political rivals within his party than outside. Ranged against Modi in 2024 are a field of regional satraps none of whom are offering a compelling alternative narrative. His principal opponent, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is serving up a re-tread of his failed 2019 campaign– repeating allegations of corruption against the PM—in cross-country walkathon. PM Modi meanwhile is on a project inaugurating blitzkrieg across the country unveiling the Ram temple, the world’s tallest railway bridge, the world’s highest bi-lane tunnel. In the narrative war of talker versus doer— there are no prizes for guessing which one will win.
While a Modi-led BJP smells victory, the opposition smells defeat—the INDI Alliance satraps don’t believe the Congress can win the 145 and 206 seats in 2004 and 2009 to form the nucleus of a post-election government. The INDI Alliance is hence haggling over seats. The alliance’s alternative vision is stark — a government in a shaky near-earth coalition orbit with whimsical partners sharing little else but a collective loathing of the BJP and Modi. If the INDI Alliance fails, it will spend another five years grounded. Can the opposition produce a candidate who can generate escape velocity in May 2029? That would be the biggest story five years hence.
The escape velocity PM
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29.02.2024
New Delhi: In a few weeks from now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face voters for a third time in a decade. It is an election he is widely believed to win- only the margin of his victory is in doubt. Modi’s 370-seat target for the BJP is 98 seats more than a simple majority of 272 seats needed to form a government.
If space metaphors are applied to politics, then political parties are like rockets and governments are satellites. Rockets need to travel at 11.86 kilometres per second to generate the velocity required to leave earth’s gravitational pull and deliver satellites into orbit. Parties need to generate a 272-seat escape velocity to punch into secure five-year orbits.
When they seek a fresh mandate, incumbent governments go before the electorate with a report card of delivering good governance. The Modi government’s biggest achievement in the last five years has been to turn India into the world’s fastest growing major economy in a turbulent post-pandemic world. But it is the personal charisma of candidates like Modi exuding a somewhat unquantifiable rock star like appeal which powers such mandates.
Only three Indian PMs– Jawaharlal........
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