In Malé, a new leadership has taken the reins of the scenic and strategically crucial Maldivian archipelago whose vast jurisdiction of Indian Ocean waters has put it at the centre of a great power play between India and China. Union Minister for Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju represented India in place of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was invited to the swearing-in ceremony of President Mohamed Muizzu in Maldives.
As a choice, this was a symbolic move as the aim seems to be to sensitise the new leader about India’s experience with China and why it has serious concerns about China’s overtures in the Maldives.
While this is a drastic downgrading of ties in stark contrast with PM Modi’s presence in 2018 visit to Solih’s swearing-in, it is also an apt message to Muizzu, whose indifference to India’s security concerns was subtly addressed by the presence of Rijiju, a well-known Indian minister from the state of Arunachal Pradesh— a region that China claims as part of southern Tibet, and therefore its own, and even renamed 11 locations in April this year despite zero physical or political footprint in the Indian state.
Riding on the back of a hyperbolic ‘India Out’ campaign, Mohamed Muizzu dethroned Ibrahim Solih, a close friend of India, as President of the island nation, raising alarm in New Delhi.
Muizzu has since called for the ouster of Indian troops from the country even as the former administration dismissed the charge as baseless. His government has formally reiterated the same demand while India negotiates a “workable solution” on the matter.
India is perceived to be disheartened by the ascent of Muizzu, a proxy of former President Abdullah Yameen who is currently in jail on corruption charges. During Yameen’s five-year regime from 2013 to 2018, India witnessed its Indian Ocean neighbour veering recklessly deep into the Chinese orbit.
Yameen’s ascent in Male coincided with Xi Jinping’s in Beijing. The former president’s government was unprecedentedly accommodating towards Xi’s BRI plans which added to India’s woes at a time when Sri Lanka had already ceded the Hambantota port to China. Without democratic debate, Yameen had forced through a one-sided free trade agreement with China, one that would have drowned Maldives in Chinese debt faster than the rising sea levels.
Despite New Delhi’s discomfort, Yameen’s government made several other moves that signalled an increasingly hostile stance towards India. Solih’s government walked back on the approach on its ascent to power in 2018, but Muizzu, deeply influenced by Yameen, threatens to lean back towards Beijing.
Muizzu’s campaign fanned anti-India sentiments across the island nation, portraying Indian aid— including two Dhruv helicopters and one Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft gifted by India and operated by Indian personnel mostly for the purpose of search and rescue operations, curbing illegal fishing and smuggling, and surveillance— as Indian military presence and an affront to the nation’s sovereignty.
The rise of Islamism and the desire of a handful of radicals close to the corridors of power, to join the China-Pakistan axis against India also cannot be ignored. The problem festered under the reign of Abdullah Yameen, and it could escalate further with the return of his proxy.
The negativity sparked by the ‘India Out’ campaign has not gone unnoticed by India, which characterised it as “motivated, malicious, and increasingly personal”. India has extended financial assistance which stands somewhere between $1.5 billion and $2 billion to the nation of half a million people. It has invested in the development of infrastructure and logistics projects, including ports, roadways, bridges, airports and cricket stadiums, to help interconnectivity among the chain’s many islands.
With vaccines and financial aid, India was also the first to step in and help Maldives during the Covid pandemic. In 2020, India extended aid worth $250 million to help the nation fight off the impact of Covid on its economy, another $40 million in 2021 and another $100 million in 2022. Maldives was also the first to receive vaccines from India, totalling 300,000, out of which, 200,000 were provided as a grant.
Of the most notable projects that India is funding is the Greater Male Connectivity Project, which entails the construction of a bridge and causeway network spanning 6.7 km, connecting Male with the adjacent islands of Villingili, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi. The $500 million undertaking by India is the largest infrastructure project in the Maldives, replacing the 1.39 km-long Sinamalé Bridge, built by the Chinese.
Historically, India has invested in healthcare facilities, education, sports, infrastructure development and more. It is a reliable and generous neighbour, which comes to Maldives’ rescue whenever disaster strikes. Be it the coup attempt in 1988 which was averted by Indian intervention, or disasters such as the devastating 2004 tsunami, the drinking water crisis in 2014 or Covid, India has proved to be reliable neighbour extending assistance with no strings attached, unlike China’s whose ultimate goal is to keep India in check in its own backyard.
In light of this, the outrageous backlash in the Maldives makes it amply clear that in the face of China-backed clamour, India’s only area of deficiency lies in self-promotion, and this allowed Muizzu’s ‘India Out’ narrative to bulldoze its way past the goodwill generated by India in recent years.
Another factor worth mentioning is that Ibu Solih’s split with Mohamed Nasheed further weakened the incumbents, paving the way for Muizzu.
With rising Chinese ambitions in the Indian Ocean, there is an increasing trend among Maldivian politicians to be drawn to the dynamics of great power competition and playing both sides to their advantage.
After all, with 1,192 islands, the Maldives sprawl over an area of more than a million square kilometres including its exclusive economic zone. This formidable geographical expanse positions the Maldives strategically, conferring it a vantage point over crucial sea lanes in the Indian Ocean.
While he’s not off to a great start in India’s books, Muizzu has vowed to work with all powers— India and China included, and says that Maldives is too small to be entangled in geopolitical rivalry.
Muizzu requires at least a symbolic victory on his promise of removing the handful of Indian military personnel in the Maldives, to move on to the next step of having grounded talks with India. Touted by his advisors as a pragmatic leader, Muizzu is expected to eventually give in to the fact that Maldives needs India, its closest, largest and most reliable partner in the realm of defence, security and trade.
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