The following is a lightly edited transcript of the December 4 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.

Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

On Tuesday night, in a special House election in Tennessee, the Republican candidate won by nine points in a district that Donald Trump carried last year by 22 points. That’s a huge swing to the left. Trump is in deep denial about the meaning of these results. He called this a great victory. He’s also been raging wildly that the Democrats’ affordability message is a scam. But his allies aren’t in denial about what happened. They’re out there warning that Republicans are “underperforming” badly, that it’s time to “sound the alarm,” and that there are “flashing red warning” signs for the GOP. Amanda Litman, president of the progressive group Run for Something, has been heavily involved in many state and local elections. She’s going to walk us through all the results, what we can learn from them, and why Republicans are right to panic. Amanda, good to have you on.

Amanda Litman: Thanks for having me, Greg.

Sargent: So the Republican Matt Van Epps beat Aftyn Behn, the Democrat, by 54 percent to 45 percent—again, nine points. But that’s a swing of 13 points in the Democrats’ favor relative to 2024. According to Nate Cohn, Republicans have underperformed Trump by an average of 13 points in many state and federal special elections. That happened again here. Amanda, what’s your overall reaction to these results? What drove that swing?

Litman: People are pissed at Trump. He is not a good president. They do not like him. They do not like his policies around the economy. They do not like what is going on. They’re looking for any possible way to communicate that. And I think this election was a ripe opportunity to do so. But we’ve seen this in basically every election, both the specials and the generals throughout 2025. People are pissed, and they want to show it. Basically, every county where there was the election across Tennessee—it was a very gerrymandered district—it swung further blue by even just a couple points. That’s enough to move the margins—that 13-point swing from 2024.

Sargent: So let’s listen to CNN’s Harry Enten on this.

Harry Enten (voiceover): Republicans should be running for the hills this morning because the blue wave is building, my dear friend, Mr. Berman. What are we talking about here? Well, Van Epps—Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate—he won it by nine. But this is a district that Donald Trump won by 22 points, 15 points, 17 points. This is a 13-point gain for the Democrats in terms of the margin, and excuse time for Republicans is over because I hear all about these special elections: “Oh, the turnout’s so low. It’s not representative of what happened in the midterm election.” The turnout last night in Tennessee’s 7th district was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election. When a party outperformed in special elections since 2005—five out of five times—they went on to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. What happened last night in Tennessee is a very, very bad omen for Republicans and a very, very good omen for Democrats.

Sargent: So we often hear that special elections aren’t predictive because turnout is very low and only the most engaged voters show up, which creates a distorted picture of what might happen in higher-turnout elections. But here we got turnout that rivals a midterm and Democrats still were able to pull off this huge shift. Why did we see such turnout this time and what does it mean?

Litman: Well, we saw both sides drop millions of dollars in this election, which feels pretty unusual for a special House race this year. I also think Aftyn Behn was a pretty exciting candidate, especially in some of the more urban areas across the district. And while Matt Van Epps is a pretty run-of-the-mill Republican, Trump’s association with him and the Republican Party’s association with him, I think, fires people up who want to send a message to them.

Sargent: Can you talk a little more about what’s driving the turnout in these races?

Litman: Fury about the economy; fury about cost of living. Trump promised to lower costs, to make groceries cheaper, make housing more affordable, and he’s done none of that. People are looking at these Black Friday sales and, you know, buying less goods for more money. They’re buying fewer Christmas presents at higher costs. That shit sucks. And I think that sort of frustration, both in urban and rural parts of Tennessee and across the country—it makes people want to show up and vote and to make their voice heard in whatever way they can.

Sargent: Well, I’m glad you brought up costs because Trump has been pretty in denial about costs. We’ve heard him over and over in recent days rage at Democrats for bringing up affordability. He’s called it a scam. He’s called it a con. He’s called it a hoax.

President Donald Trump........

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