Can We Lose the Same War Twice? With Trump, Anything’s Possible

Phase One of the Iran war ended in defeat and humiliation. Phase Two could be just as bad—or worse.

The first phase of Donald Trump’s war on Iran ended in defeat and humiliation. Iran emerged battered but stronger, with two new weapons: control of the Strait of Hormuz and a demonstrated drone and missile force that can cripple the economies of its Persian Gulf neighbors and wreak havoc on U.S. bases. Both are new instruments of power more usable than nuclear weapons.

The two New Jersey property managers Trump sent to negotiate his surrender produced a poorly written memorandum of understanding, or MOU, that captured the new power relations—Iran got nearly everything it demanded, including a $300 billion reconstruction fund, while the United States got vague promises of talks on all the issues Trump had started the war to resolve.

In particular, point five of the MOU, which seems dictated by Iran and accepted by the hapless Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, clearly gave Iran authority over all traffic through the strait: “Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only.”

So why did Trump restart the war? As Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan write in their new book, Regime Change, “Unlike recent Presidents, Trump had shown he was entirely comfortable using extraordinary presidential powers on a whim.”

Those extraordinary powers include the ability to launch waves of destructive attacks solely on his order. But these attacks, now numbering hundreds of sorties, are pointless. If it were possible to bomb Iran into submission, it would have worked the first time.

Trump has been stewing over his loss. He accomplished none of the objectives he repeatedly promised, including:

Overthrowing the Iranian regime. The government is likely stronger than before the war and certainly more hard-line.

Obliterating Iran’s nuclear program. Trump and Israel failed last July to destroy the program and failed again........

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