The Middle East is entering a quieter but far more consequential rupture. This is not the drama of crowds in public squares or leaders toppled overnight. It is the slow, strategic fracturing of states, coastlines and trust — driven by calculated power plays along the world’s most vital maritime arteries. Recent moves in Yemen, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea signal not chaos but design. They have forced the Arab world’s centre of gravity, particularly Riyadh, into an overdue reckoning.

At stake is a stretch of water barely 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point: Bab al-Mandeb. Through this chokepoint flows roughly 12 per cent of global trade and nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day, linking Asia, Europe, and the Mediterranean. Any disruption reverberates instantly through insurance markets, energy prices and supply chains — something Australians understand viscerally after years of Indo-Pacific shockwaves. Control of this corridor has become a currency of influence. Over the past decade, the United Arab Emirates and Israel have pursued it with growing coordination, leveraging ports, proxies and political recognition to secure footholds on both shores of the Red Sea.

The most jarring signal came in December 2025, when Israel became the first country to formally recognise Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia. The move stunned African capitals and Arab heavyweights alike. The African Union condemned it as a violation of territorial integrity. Egypt and Djibouti

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