“Trump’s challenge isn’t just Tehran. It’s balancing Israel, the donor class, and his own movement—both of which are pulling him in different directions.” The quote, as published by the Financial Times, captures the crux of America’s impending conflict with Iran. It’s no longer limited to containing Iran’s ambitions, but may now be about Donald Trump’s political survival if the war backfires.

The pressures converging on Trump

There are three forces putting pressure on Donald Trump, all reinforcing each other in a vicious cycle that could prove catastrophic. The Israel lobby has been instrumental in shaping America’s approach to Iran all along. Netanyahu has been putting immense pressure on Trump to escalate against Iran, and the Israel lobby has been generously rewarding politicians who take a hawkish approach towards Iran. AIPAC has spent more than $100 million on the 2024 electoral cycle so far, making it clear to politicians on both sides of the aisle that politicians must stick to the script or face electoral consequences. Trump, desperate to win the Israel lobby’s vote, has shown that he’s all too willing to comply with their demands.

Trump knows that if he were to take a less hawkish approach towards Iran, he would be jeopardising the financial lifeline of his movement. A senior Republican fundraiser confided to the press that “There is no daylight between what the big donors want on Iran and what Netanyahu wants. Trump understands that perfectly.”

Trump knows that if he were to take a less hawkish approach towards Iran, he would be jeopardising the financial lifeline of his movement. A senior Republican fundraiser confided to the press that “There is no daylight between........

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