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The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) made history in 2018 and 2022, winning two of the largest majorities in Quebec’s political history. Positioning itself as a credible economic alternative to the Quebec Liberal Party and a nationalist alternative to the Parti Québécois, it embodied a “third way” based on economic pragmatism, identity politics, and autonomist nationalism.

However, this electoral dominance has not translated into lasting popular support. How can we explain the CAQ’s rapid decline in popularity after two such decisive victories? To what extent has the CAQ really kept its promises? And what does the CAQ’s record reveal compared to that of previous governments?

Data from the Centre for Public Policy Analysis’ Polimeter allows us to examine the CAQ’s record of delivering on election promises in five key policy areas — culture and nationalism, economy and labour, environment and energy, education, health and social services — while situating its performance in the context of broader political and economic constraints.

The CAQ’s trajectory reveals a central tension in modern governance between explicit and implicit electoral mandates: keeping promises is necessary but insufficient to maintain public trust. Good governance is essential.

A strong track record on promises

Figure 1 shows that the majority government formed by the CAQ (2018-2022) fulfilled (fully or partially) 80 per cent of its election commitments during its first mandate. In absolute numbers, this first CAQ government kept 200 promises, in whole or in part. This result is remarkable for two reasons: first, the CAQ was a new party, coming to power for the first time, with no prior experience. The party was able to achieve this goal while managing the COVID-19 pandemic and maintaining high levels of public satisfaction.

By contrast, by spring 2026, the second CAQ government (2022-2026) had partially or fully fulfilled 65 per cent (95) of its commitments, 24 per cent of which are still underway or not yet evaluated. This second term pales in comparison to the first. 

Health and social services in the lead

During its two mandates, the CAQ has remained focused on the same major priorities: health and social services, the economy and labour, and education. But their relative weight has evolved. Commitments to health and social services have decreased (from 22 to 16.7 per cent), while those related to the economy, labour and education increased (from 14 to 18 per cent and from 11 to 14.7 per cent, respectively).

Since the CAQ linked the economy to the energy transition and climate-change policy, the proportion of environmental and energy commitments represented 18.7 per cent of all promises in the second term.

We included culture and nationalism in our analysis because of their importance in the “third way” proposed by the CAQ as a nationalist and autonomist positioning between independence (Parti Québécois) and federalism (Quebec Liberal Party) that affirms and........

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