Governments around the world are guarding their national borders like never before. Spending on state security and surveillance is increasing by billions of dollars every year as political leaders respond to record numbers of international migrants and growing anti-immigrant sentiment among voters.

In 2025, for the first time in years, the clampdown appears to be having an impact on global migration patterns.

Immigration remains one of the top three issues for voters in the UK alongside the economy and health. More than 85 per cent of migrants who come have been given visas by the government. But the remainder – people who may be fleeing wars, persecution, poverty and natural disasters – arrive uninvited.

Such irregular or illegal migration is a hot political issue across the Western world, prompting questions about the numbers of foreigners crossing international borders and the impact they have economically and culturally.

Donald Trump has made keeping people out of the US a defining issue for his Presidency.  His “Big Beautiful Bill” will see $145bn spent on border security and immigration enforcement.

The White House is already claiming that the numbers of migrants leaving America is now greater than those arriving. The policy think-tank AEI is projecting that US net migration this year may fall to -525,000 and reckons it is destined to fall further still. Trumptook to Truth Social in August to claim victory: “Promises Made. Promises Kept. NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION for the First Time in 50 Years!”

The Department of Homeland Security has........

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