The true protagonists in the February 8 national polls in Pakistan were two individuals — Army Chief General Asim Munir and former Prime Minister and founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party, Imran Khan. Munir used all levers of state power from behind the scenes and through other institutions and individuals to try to grind Khan into electoral dust. With results of 250 of the 266 general seats contested in the elections announced so far, it is certain, that he has failed to do so.
Khan, imprisoned since early May last year, convicted in numerous cases which prevented him from both contesting elections or campaigning, was compelled to make his party candidates stand as independents. This was because the Pakistan Election Commission suspended PTI’s symbol. However, despite these steps and also pressures on Khan’s leading colleagues, PTI candidates contesting as independents came through as the single largest group. They secured more seats (declared so far) in the National Assembly (91) than either the Munir favoured party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of the Sharifs (71) or the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) of the Bhutto-Zaradaris (53). This indicates that Khan has retained a large measure of his voter base amidst very adverse political circumstances.
As no party has secured a majority, Pakistan is necessarily heading towards a coalition government. To understand the complexities in government formation, it is essential to turn to the Pakistan constitution. It provides for a National Assembly of 342 members of which 242 (elections were held for 235 seats) are to be elected directly. At the same time, 60 seats are reserved for women which are proportionately filled, on a provincial basis, from lists provided by parties. It is mandatory for a party to secure 5 per cent of the vote to be eligible for women’s seats. Ten seats are reserved for minorities on a national basis.
As PTI could not contest as a party, it is not eligible for the women and minorities seats. Without these seats, no party can get a majority in this Assembly. The way out for PTI to be eligible for women and minority seats would be for its members to join a small party such as the one-member Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), which is from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This will entitle the PTI, acting under the banner of the MWM, to women and minority seats but that will not get it into power for it will still remain distant from the presently required majority number of 168. Other parties, either on their own or under Munir’s pressure, will not throw in their lot with Khan.
In the present scenario, it is the PPP which is crucial to government formation. It has retained Sindh and gained in Punjab too. Munir has no doubt urged PML(N) and PPP to join hands in another version of the pre-election Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) government led by PML (N) leader and Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz Sharif. Talks are taking place between the two on government making but negotiations will be tough for there is much at stake for both parties. It is more than probable that, in the end, Munir and his coterie of generals will make the two parties hammer out an understanding for the “good of Pakistan”. It is possible that a PML(N) and PPP government may not fulfil Nawaz Sharif’s aspiration to become Pakistan’s Prime Minister for the fourth time but the PML (N) would fight for his cause forcefully.
How should these election results be read? Imran Khan once again swept KP. That is not surprising for his Pathan heritage has always resonated with its people. What is interesting is that Imran retained his base in Punjab, politically the country’s most important province. Significantly, the country’s army is largely Punjabi and on May 9 last year, Imran Khan’s supporters attacked army institutions. That had led to a permanent breach between Munir and Khan. In the nine months since, the army has sought to strengthen the narrative that Khan and PTI are unpatriotic while the army is the ultimate guardian of its territorial and ideological integrity. Clearly, the first aspect of the army’s propaganda did not cut any ice with Khan’s supporters but it would be wrong to read this support for Khan as a fatal weakening of the trust that the Pakistani people, on the whole, have for the army as an institution. This is especially so regarding the army’s role in defending the country against its “permanent” threat, India.
The question is if Imran Khan’s extraordinary performance in these elections in the most adverse circumstances will prevail on the superior judiciary to re-look at his convictions so that he can come out of prison and play an active political role. There would be pressures on the judiciary and other institutions too with the large presence of “Khan’s” Members of the National Assembly. While the army and the coalition that will be formed will try to wean away some of these MNAs, most, fearing adverse voter reactions, would remain loyal to Khan. It is unlikely that Khan will get judicial relief in the immediate future but it is equally unlikely that the courts will not, at some stage, let him out. If they do so, he will remain in Pakistan; he is not the kind who will agree to go into foreign exile.
It is well known that Khan had a good measure of support within the army. Munir ruthlessly dealt with pro-Imran elements, including a Corp Commander, after the May 9 incidents. These election results may revive a positive sentiment in sections of the army for Imran, which Munir and the ISI will deal with an iron hand.
There is a section within Pakistan which wishes the army to become detached from politics. They may be enthused by these results, hoping that they may initiate a churning in the army about its national role. That is unlikely to happen. The Pakistani army will remain both professional and political. And, Munir will not reduce his antipathy for Khan for his neck is on the line.
The writer is a former diplomat
To understand the complexities in government formation, it is essential to turn to the Pakistan constitution
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10.02.2024
The true protagonists in the February 8 national polls in Pakistan were two individuals — Army Chief General Asim Munir and former Prime Minister and founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party, Imran Khan. Munir used all levers of state power from behind the scenes and through other institutions and individuals to try to grind Khan into electoral dust. With results of 250 of the 266 general seats contested in the elections announced so far, it is certain, that he has failed to do so.
Khan, imprisoned since early May last year, convicted in numerous cases which prevented him from both contesting elections or campaigning, was compelled to make his party candidates stand as independents. This was because the Pakistan Election Commission suspended PTI’s symbol. However, despite these steps and also pressures on Khan’s leading colleagues, PTI candidates contesting as independents came through as the single largest group. They secured more seats (declared so far) in the National Assembly (91) than either the Munir favoured party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of the Sharifs (71) or the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) of the Bhutto-Zaradaris (53). This indicates that Khan has retained a large measure of his voter base amidst very adverse political circumstances.
As no party has secured a majority, Pakistan is necessarily heading towards a coalition government. To understand the complexities in government formation, it is essential to turn to the Pakistan constitution. It........
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