The attack on Iran by the US and Israel, killing the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, begins a new chapter in the future of Iranian politics and the power dynamics of West Asia. Several leaders have also been killed. They include Sayyid Abdolrahim Mousavi, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces and the country’s defence minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh. The strikes claimed the lives of high-level military officials, including Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Defence Council, and Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The fact that multiple Arab states in the Persian Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, were targeted by the Iranian missiles shows that the Iranian regime views the situation as a fight for survival. However, it is practically impossible to determine the course events will take.

Israel has used the word “preemptive” to justify its attack, but US President Donald Trump has called on the Iranian people to rise and overthrow the country’s Islamic regime. To many in Washington and in the European capitals, it seems that what the US President intends to achieve is something similar to what happened in Venezuela in January — get rid of the unpopular leadership and invite reformists in the country to cooperate with Washington. However, this will not work the way it did in Venezuela for the simple reason that any regime change in Iran should........

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