The BJP’s emphatic victory in north India in the recent assembly elections has reopened the question: What can be the strategy for the Opposition, when faced with an overwhelmingly shrewd and popular prime minister, a deeply connected, motivated, well resourced, tactically smart political machine, and, pockets of economic disaffection notwithstanding, no surge of discontent against the central government?
The challenge for the Opposition is that it is not able to articulate a criticism of the government that sticks. A senior BJP leader recently said that while Congress’s communication was feistier, it was aimed at those who were already converted. As the powerful election analysis produced by the Centre for Policy Research shows, in the states it lost, Congress vote share has remained mostly constant. Ironically, instead of the Opposition mopping up the anti-BJP vote, the BJP seems better at consolidating the anti-Congress vote. This is most stark in Chhattisgarh where Congress vote share has barely dipped, but the BJP’s has increased by almost 12 per cent. The constancy in aggregate vote share could disguise a lot of micro churn. But it seems to suggest that Congress is, at best, speaking to the converted. Why might that be the case?
The main problem is that the Congress intellectual eco system is entirely at cross-purposes with the ideological changes it needs. The bane of the Left and Centre in Indian politics is its lazy social determinism: For years now, it has been searching for some natural social group, the equivalent of the proletariat, that simply by virtue of its social position acts as an agent of emancipation. Sometimes it is Dalits, sometimes minorities, sometimes caste groups in general. Politics is reduced to an arithmetic of compulsory social identities.
The caste census was the latest enactment of this mistake. It was politically myopic, because there is no serious development agenda that requires the caste census. This social determinism is morally offensive: It continues to treat voters as scripts of an identity, rather than as political agents making decisions under complex conditions. It is empirically false as the BJP has proved by the impressive transformation it has brought about in political identities of Dalits, OBCs and STs. The BJP engages in an identity politics of Hindutva. But it is far more conscious that identity is politically generated. The Left’s identitarianism seems even more imprisoning, and deeply anti-political.
Take the latest canard: The north-south distinction. There are differences between north and south. But the intellectual scaffolding that Congress supporters are trying to build around them is counterproductive, bordering on the racist. It belies the fact that there is simmering communalism in the south, even in Kerala. Caste as a social construct is as oppressive in states like Tamil Nadu as anywhere else. And it is odd to claim that Karnataka can go from being the paragon of evil to virtue and Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan from virtue to evil in one election. It underestimates the potential for the BJP in the south. These constructs reek of a politics of petty divisions, come across as naïve about the complex sinews that bind India and leave the grandeur of national ambition entirely to the BJP.
The political genius of the BJP notwithstanding, it will be morally otiose to deny the increased risks of authoritarianism and communalism. But, it has to be admitted, these threats are not being widely felt or experienced. This is just a political fact whether we like it or not. Almost all important institutions of the state are being degraded and our liberties are at peril. But it is being done in a way that most citizens do not experience the difference in their ordinary experience of governance. A few arrests here, a few Opposition leaders being targeted, is still seen as par for the course. And the competitiveness of the political space gives many the assurance that this is at best a minor aberration, not a systematic threat. This is an issue that can be amplified only when those who hold disproportionate power in society, its elites, amplify it. Unfortunately, this is not a constituency the Opposition is able to attract or convince.
On Hindutva, the Opposition critique is hampered by two factors. There is little doubt the BJP has created a core amongst Hindus that is comfortable with the political marginalisation and even violence against Muslims. The will to violent nihilism is more prevalent than we like to admit. But like with authoritarianism, many have assured themselves that there is still no widespread violence yet that puts pressure on one’s conscience, or raises the spectre of disorder. The threat seems too distant.
But the Opposition keeps falling into arguing on Hindutva’s terms. The core concern of the Opposition is not a dogfight over culture; the Congress’ ecosystem is not well placed to win that fight. It does have to meet the charge of being anti-Hindu, and every cultural fight lands it in that trap. The only way out of this is the defence of every single individual’s equal freedom and dignity, something that rises above the majority-minority framework. It has to take consistent stands on free expression and blasphemy, riots and political killings, and critique of community power in all communities. In the majority-minority framework, the minorities will lose politically.
The Congress has foregrounded a critique of corruption. This has two problems. The only circumstance in which it works is if there is a credible carrier: Either a rank outsider like JP or in its early days, AAP, or a big defector from the ruling system like VP Singh. The second is the level of critique: There was, for example, a lot of dissatisfaction with corrupt MLAs, or concerns about exam recruitment. But an abstract critique of Adani (in a state like Rajasthan which is receiving a Rs 5,000 crore Adani investment) was beside the point. The other is the economy.
This is a complex issue: The state has to stitch together welfare coalitions, and the competition is often over competence. But more importantly, the Opposition is increasingly being seen as lurching more left: The line between being anti-big business and anti-business is hard to convey. It has no new paradigm that looks like a new deal for the Indian economy.
So, apart from the leadership, tactical and organisational issue, the Opposition, whether Congress singly or the INDIA alliance, is struggling most of all to find a language and a space for a critique that hits the mark. No wonder it is speaking to the converted.
The writer is contributing editor, The Indian Express
Opposition is struggling to find language and space for a critique that hits the mark
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07.12.2023
The BJP’s emphatic victory in north India in the recent assembly elections has reopened the question: What can be the strategy for the Opposition, when faced with an overwhelmingly shrewd and popular prime minister, a deeply connected, motivated, well resourced, tactically smart political machine, and, pockets of economic disaffection notwithstanding, no surge of discontent against the central government?
The challenge for the Opposition is that it is not able to articulate a criticism of the government that sticks. A senior BJP leader recently said that while Congress’s communication was feistier, it was aimed at those who were already converted. As the powerful election analysis produced by the Centre for Policy Research shows, in the states it lost, Congress vote share has remained mostly constant. Ironically, instead of the Opposition mopping up the anti-BJP vote, the BJP seems better at consolidating the anti-Congress vote. This is most stark in Chhattisgarh where Congress vote share has barely dipped, but the BJP’s has increased by almost 12 per cent. The constancy in aggregate vote share could disguise a lot of micro churn. But it seems to suggest that Congress is, at best, speaking to the converted. Why might that be the case?
The main problem is that the Congress intellectual eco system is entirely at cross-purposes with the ideological changes it needs. The bane of the Left and Centre in Indian politics is its lazy social determinism: For years now, it has been searching for some natural social group, the equivalent of the proletariat, that simply by virtue of its social position acts as an agent of........
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