Voters in England and Wales will go to the polls on May 2.
The Tories are on course to lose more than 400 seats at next month’s local elections, according to a Conservative peer.
Polling expert Lord Hayward said his party would have “a bad night” on May 2.
However, he said it “will not be a blowout for Labour”, with the party expected to gain between 200 and 250 seats as they are squeezed by left-wing and independent candidates.
The Lib Dems will gain around 100 seats, Lord Hayward said, with a “surge” in support for the Greens seeing them gain 30 councillors.
The Tory peer said: “Overall, I expect the Tories to have a bad night but it will not be a blowout for Labour.
“The new disruptors will probably have a greater impact on Labour than the Tories.”
He said he would put the Tory losses at “somewhat less” than the 500 predicted by Sky News pollsters Michael Rallings and Colin Thrasher.
“I would put the figure on the upside of 400,” he said. “A factor which might increase that figure is the number of swing councils which are all out because of boundary changes.”
More than 2,600 seats will be up for grabs across England, with the Tories and Labour defending around 1,000 each.
The last time those seats were up for election, in 2021, the Conservatives were enjoying a surge in popularity thanks to the success of the Covid vaccine rollout.
They comfortably won with a national equivalent vote (NEV) share of 40%, compared to Labour’s 30%.
But the chaos which led to the demise of both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss has sent the Tories’ poll numbers plummeting since then and Rishi Sunak has failed to arrest the Conservatives’ decline.
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Tory Peer Predicts His Party Will Lose At Least 400 Seats In The Local Elections
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25.04.2024
Voters in England and Wales will go to the polls on May 2.
The Tories are on course to lose more than 400 seats at next month’s local elections, according to a Conservative peer.
Polling expert Lord Hayward said his party would have “a bad night” on May 2.
However, he said it “will not be a blowout for Labour”, with the party expected to gain between 200 and 250 seats as they are squeezed by left-wing and independent candidates.
The Lib Dems will gain........
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