It is the last week of November, and yet there is no sign of the ‘First Advance Estimates of Production’ of foodgrains, oilseeds and other commercial crops for the 2025-26 Kharif season (until the time of writing of this column on November 24).

It is unclear what is holding up the Union Ministry of Agriculture from publishing the estimates.

Major Kharif season harvests include rice, pulses (tur/arhar, urad), coarse cereals (maize), oilseeds (soybean, groundnut), cotton and sugarcane.

Although the trade makes its own best-judgement estimates of production based on acreage, rainfall, and other factors, value chain participants look forward to the government’s official estimates that serve as a second opinion. Often, official estimates trigger administrative action, like price support programmes, storage restrictions, etc.

A private forecast of Kharif 2025-26 major crop production was........

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