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All eyes are on the scale and scope of Israel’s promised response to Iran’s large-scale missile barrage on Tuesday. Few eyes are watching more warily than those in the oil market, which is getting unsettling hints that Iran’s oil industry, if not Iran’s nuclear facilities, could be on the target list for Israeli reprisals.

U.S. President Joe Biden fueled that speculation on Thursday, when he answered a question about Israel’s plans to potentially attack Iran’s oil facilities by saying, “We’re discussing that.” He seemed dismissive of the idea, but he didn’t outright reject it the way he had the day before regarding a strike on Iran’s nuclear installations.

All eyes are on the scale and scope of Israel’s promised response to Iran’s large-scale missile barrage on Tuesday. Few eyes are watching more warily than those in the oil market, which is getting unsettling hints that Iran’s oil industry, if not Iran’s nuclear facilities, could be on the target list for Israeli reprisals.

U.S. President Joe Biden fueled that speculation on Thursday, when he answered a question about Israel’s plans to potentially attack Iran’s oil facilities by saying, “We’re discussing that.” He seemed dismissive of the idea, but he didn’t outright reject it the way he had the day before regarding a strike on Iran’s nuclear installations.

Within minutes of Biden’s comments on Thursday, oil prices shot up. Brent crude, the global benchmark, soared to nearly $78 a barrel, up more than 5 percent for the day, after largely shrugging off the kind of intensifying war in the Middle East that used to give oil traders the tremors.

Ever since Hamas launched a massive attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, unleashing what would become a two-front campaign of missile strikes and ground incursions, energy markets have been the dog that didn’t bark. Months of open and intense combat between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and more recently between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as a pair of direct confrontations between Israel and Iran, have left oil markets entirely nonplussed: Crude........

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