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Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

Marking a new phase after almost five years of war, Russia is intensifying and widening its air war against Ukraine. Now that Ukrainian forces have stopped and partially reversed the Russian battlefield advance, the Kremlin appears to have embraced a new theory of victory. By not only increasing the number of missile and drone strikes but expanding the range of their targets, Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to paralyze Ukraine’s economy, society, and basic functioning of the state as winter approaches.

In the past few months, Russia has become more systematic, deliberate, and precise in striking civilian infrastructure. On the back of increased production of ballistic missiles and newer, faster drones, the Kremlin has widened the air campaign to target Ukrainian railways, gas stations, port infrastructure, cargo ships, shopping malls, and data centers. Russia’s plan also includes cutting Ukrainian cities off from electricity, heating, and water.

Marking a new phase after almost five years of war, Russia is intensifying and widening its air war against Ukraine. Now that Ukrainian forces have stopped and partially reversed the Russian battlefield advance, the Kremlin appears to have embraced a new theory of victory. By not only increasing the number of missile and drone strikes but expanding the range of their targets, Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to paralyze Ukraine’s economy, society, and basic functioning of the state as winter approaches.

In the past few months, Russia has become more systematic, deliberate, and precise in striking civilian infrastructure. On the back of increased production of ballistic missiles and newer, faster drones, the Kremlin has widened the air campaign to target Ukrainian railways, gas stations, port infrastructure, cargo ships, shopping malls, and data centers. Russia’s plan also includes cutting Ukrainian cities off from electricity, heating, and water.

This campaign is not merely Russia ramping up attacks against civilians and objects in the rear. It is an attempt to strangle Ukraine’s economy, disrupt supply chains, cut transport routes, and destroy public utilities. By systematically targeting the infrastructure that allows Ukraine’s society and economy to function, Russia aims to make Ukraine uninhabitable as winter approaches.

In the weeks and months ahead, we should not only expect these strikes to continue but also rise further in frequency as additional Russian weapons production comes online. Russia’s shift to a war economy is now paying........

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