FP’s look ahead

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief, and Happy New Year.

This week, we’re previewing some of the biggest stories of 2026: the future of U.S.-Mexico-Canada relations amid a trade deal review and the World Cup, the race for the next United Nations secretary-general, and key elections across the region.

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief, and Happy New Year.

This week, we’re previewing some of the biggest stories of 2026: the future of U.S.-Mexico-Canada relations amid a trade deal review and the World Cup, the race for the next United Nations secretary-general, and key elections across the region.

Sign up to receive Latin America Brief in your inbox every Friday.

By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.

✓ Signed Up

In recent decades, the politics and economies of Canada, Mexico, and the United States have become so intertwined that leaders’ summits between the countries earned the nickname the Three Amigos.

U.S. President Donald Trump tested the limits of that friendship last year via tariffs, threats to abandon a trilateral trade deal, and harsh immigration restrictions that could undermine the success of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be held across the three countries.

This summer, the countries will face a deadline for whether to scrap, keep, or tweak the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal that took effect in 2020—just as the soccer tournament gets underway. The fate of both will affect the all-important North American relationship.

USMCA was negotiated during Trump’s first term, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement. It has a built-in review process that is due to conclude by July 1. Mexico and Canada would like to see the deal extended in something close to its current form, while Trump’s trade representative, Jamieson Greer, recently said that the United States had considered exiting the deal and replacing it with separate bilateral agreements.

In private, U.S. negotiators appear committed to the deal, senior Canadian officials have said. But Trump’s unpredictability, especially on trade, means that the fate of the deal is an open question. U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico last year already slowed growth in both countries; some experts say the levies violated the USMCA.

The outcome of the USMCA review could provide clarity on where U.S. tariff levels will ultimately settle. For Mexico and Canada, a sharp departure from current USMCA rules would force an initially painful reorganization of their foreign trade relations. Some 75 percent of Canada’s exports and 80 percent of Mexico’s currently go to the United States.

The World Cup, for its part, could affect public opinion of the United States in Mexico and the broader region. Hosting the tournament is an opportunity for any country to boost its

© Foreign Policy