When a limited number of Myanmar’s citizens go to the polls beginning on Dec. 28, the outcome of the election—the first since the military seized power in a 2021 coup—won’t be in question. The ruling junta is expected to carefully choreograph the proceedings to continue its rule under a civilian guise.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a proxy for the military, is running effectively unopposed. Former democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been jailed since the coup; her twice-elected National League for Democracy party was officially dissolved in 2023 after the military said it refused to comply with a strict new registration law.

When a limited number of Myanmar’s citizens go to the polls beginning on Dec. 28, the outcome of the election—the first since the military seized power in a 2021 coup—won’t be in question. The ruling junta is expected to carefully choreograph the proceedings to continue its rule under a civilian guise.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a proxy for the military, is running effectively unopposed. Former democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been jailed since the coup; her twice-elected National League for Democracy party was officially dissolved in 2023 after the military said it refused to comply with a strict new registration law.

Though the election result is predetermined, many questions remain. Will the polls be marred by violence? Will the military be able to hold elections in all the areas that it plans to, given the massive civil war that the coup sparked? How will the election be received by the international community, especially regional neighbors? Who will ascend to the presidency?

It has been widely reported that China is pushing for the election to take place, as it is frustrated with junta leader and commander in chief Min Aung Hlaing but sees the pro-democracy movement as too influenced by the West. Beijing hopes that the election could serve as a reset, diffusing power among more stakeholders. This could also open the door for peace talks, which could stabilize fighting on the China-Myanmar border and near key infrastructure projects.

Other observers warn that this is unlikely. Richard Horsey, the senior Myanmar advisor for the International Crisis Group, wrote this month that the election may be followed by some strategic cease-fires between the government and specific powerful armed groups,........

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