F ederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a blunt message Sunday night. The Department of Justice had served the central bank with grand jury subpoenas carrying the threat of a criminal indictment tied to Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last year. Powell said the investigation wasn’t really about that testimony. Or about a long-running renovation project at the Fed’s Washington headquarters. In a video message, he said it was about pressure. The goal, Powell argued, was to undermine the Fed’s ability to set interest rates based on economic conditions rather than presidential demands. In short, Trump doesn’t want an independent Federal Reserve.

Market watchers braced for a sharp reaction. Analysts warned that global investors could rethink their faith in U.S. institutions. Some revived talk of a broader “sell America” trade because if the White House can lean on the Fed, investors may demand a higher risk premium for U.S. assets. Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, captured that fear in a Sunday night note. “This is unambiguously risk off,” he wrote.

That’s not what happened. Markets barely flinched. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq all finished up on the day. Former Fed Chair and former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said investors should “be concerned.” But concern didn’t turn into selling. Trump has sparred with Powell before. Little came of it. Courts recently blocked an attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Two Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, have already said they would block any new Federal Reserve nominee until the Justice Department investigation is resolved. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Confirmation takes 51 votes. That suggests some guardrails are still working.

There’s another reason the market reaction has been muted. History shows that pressure on the Fed doesn’t automatically hurt stocks.

The evidence comes from the

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