In October 1915, Ernest Shackleton watched his ship sink into the Weddell Sea. The Endurance had been trapped in Antarctic pack ice for ten months before the pressure finally crushed its hull.

Shackleton’s mission was ambitious, to say the least: he wanted to lead the first complete land crossing of Antarctica—all 1,800 miles of it. Shackleton was as prepared a leader as anyone, having been on two expeditions to the region before, one of which he led. He was known for being optimistic, courageous and determined, qualities that would certainly come in handy for what he and his crew would face as they watched their ship vanish into the sea, 1,500 miles from the closest human settlement.

The ship gone, Shackleton was forced to pivot to a new goal: get his crew out alive. He announced it simply—"Ship and stores have gone, so now we'll go home"—and immediately started making decisions. They were imperfect, provisional and made with whatever scraps of information he had. But he did it. Nearly two years later, all 27 crewmembers made it home.

Today’s leaders aren’t stranded in Antarctica, but it’s safe to say these are murky times. Geopolitical shocks, economic shakiness and breakneck advances in AI have left many feeling unmoored, even pessimistic. New data from the executive coaching firm Vistage found that more CEOs expect economic conditions to worsen over the next year than those who expect........

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