If Southern states continue to grow at the same pace that they have since 2020, the South’s national political influence could grow significantly when congressional seats are reapportioned after the 2030 census.

A new analysis of U.S. Census data by the Brennan Center finds that, based on population growth in the South between 2020-2025, Southern states could add up to nine congressional seats and the same number of Electoral College votes for president after the 2030 census numbers are tallied.

However, the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration — a key driver of the South’s growth — as well as questions about the U.S. Census Bureau’s ability to accurately capture population data make projections of the region's political gains challenging.

The South’s growing clout

After the U.S. census count every 10 years, the number of U.S. House seats for each state is adjusted to match changes in population, a process called reapportionment. Every House seat gained also adds to each state’s number of Electoral College votes for electing the president.

As the population of many Southern states has boomed in recent decades, the nation’s political gravity has steadily shifted to the South. Since the 2000 census, Southern states have seen a net gain of 15 House seats and Electoral College votes.

Florida and Texas account for 13 of those added seats, Georgia and North Carolina picked up a combined five seats, and South Carolina added one in that 20-year span. The South’s........

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