The intensifying China-Japan rivalry is framed as a mirror security dilemma in which each side’s defensive measures—Japan’s modernisation and closer US alliance, China’s naval expansion—are interpreted as hostile, reinforced by historical memories of Japanese imperialism and contemporary Chinese power growth.

The disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea form the most tangible flashpoint, with repeated maritime encounters risking escalation, while China’s growing capabilities and Japan’s more active posture, underpinned by the US alliance, deepen mutual insecurity despite deep economic interdependence.

Sustainable stability requires combining credible deterrence with regular high-level and military-to-military dialogue, greater transparency, crisis-management mechanisms and careful management of historical narratives so that routine adjustments are not misread as deliberate challenges.

The intensifying strategic rivalry between China and Japan represents one of the most consequential security challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Despite their deep economic interdependence and geographical proximity, the two countries increasingly view each other through the prism of strategic competition, military uncertainty and historical mistrust. Their growing military capabilities, competing territorial claims and divergent visions of regional order have contributed to an atmosphere of suspicion that threatens to undermine stability in East Asia. At the heart of this relationship lies a mirror security dilemma, in which measures adopted by one country to enhance its security are interpreted by the other as evidence of hostile intentions, prompting countermeasures that reinforce mutual insecurity.

Contemporary tensions cannot be understood without considering the historical experiences that continue to shape Chinese and Japanese national identities. Japan’s imperial expansion in East Asia, its invasion of China and the extensive suffering associated with Japanese military occupation remain deeply embedded in Chinese historical consciousness. These memories influence Chinese assessments of Japanese security policies, particularly when Japanese political leaders advocate a more assertive defence posture or reconsider the country’s post-war strategic constraints. For Japan, the regional security environment has changed substantially since the Second World War. Its post-war political identity has been associated with constitutional pacifism, economic development and reliance on the United States for extended security guarantees. However, China’s growing military strength, its activities in the East China Sea and its expanding regional influence have generated concerns within Japanese strategic circles about the adequacy of existing defence arrangements.

These contrasting........

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