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Braid: Another Conservative MP crosses; Liberals will have their majority Monday

Rumours are everywhere that the defections aren’t done. One or even more could spice up the weekend’s big Liberal convention in Montreal

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Sarnia Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu backed the trucker blockade in Ottawa, along with a bill that would force floor-crossers to quit and run again.

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On Wednesday, however, she crossed the floor to become a newly-minted Liberal for Prime Minister Mark Carney — the fifth of her kind.

There’s no quit in this politician.

A less obvious Liberal than Gladu you can’t imagine. She’s as unlikely a flipper as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

But there she was, sounding like Carney’s best friend forever.

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Rumours are everywhere that the defections aren’t done. One or even more could spice up the weekend’s big Liberal convention in Montreal.

Imagine that, trotting out more ex-Conservatives on the convention stage, all praising Carney’s brand of conversion therapy.

At the same time this was shaping up, Katy Merrifield sent the federal Conservative caucus her letter of resignation. Merrifield has been Poilievre’s communication boss. She is largely responsible for his successful post-election move to a more likeable, agreeable style.

Merrifield is a top player in this rarified field. She did it for former B.C. premier Christy Clark, ex-Alberta premier Jason Kenney, and then Poilievre.

“I’m proud of my contributions to the movement over the past year, and I will continue to support the leader, team and conservative movement long after I depart this role,” Merrifield said in a statement.

In a note to Conservative MPs, she added, “I wish you all the best and please know I will be supporting Pierre and the Conservative team wherever I am!”

Hardly anybody believes the two resignations aren’t connected.

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I’m reliably informed, however, that Merrifield was as shocked as everybody else by Gladu’s defection.

That pretty much shows how turbulent things are in Poilievre’s caucus. If a true ideological foe to the Liberals can cross, who won’t?

To cap it all, the Liberal Party convention will be held in Montreal this weekend, on the eve of three byelections next Monday.

These two events really are connected.

Two byelections in the Toronto area are sure victories for the Liberals on Monday.

With those new MPs, and Gladu’s arrival, the Liberals will suddenly have 173 seats — the majority they’ve been desperately seeking since last year’s election.

But slim majorities are hard to manage in Parliament. Every extra seat counts.

The Liberals also covet Terrebonne, the third riding up for grabs on Monday, after it was declared vacant by the courts.

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Terrebonne is a suburban riding right across the Saint Lawrence from Montreal’s northeastern tip. It was evenly split between Liberals and Bloc Quebecois last year.

The Liberal convention, so perfectly co-ordinated, will be a symphony of partisan publicity for local voters all weekend long. Praise for Quebec will flow like the great river itself.

Winning that riding would bring the Liberal count to 174, a majority of two seats, with perhaps more to come.

That sounds like further disaster for the Conservatives. The majority they stopped the Liberals from winning at the polls has come to pass anyway.

But there’s a small ray of hope.

For months the real worry for Conservatives has been a snap election call.

The Liberals would campaign on the threat from U.S. President Donald Trump, and the need for a powerful mandate to fend him off while building the new Canada.

But that argument doesn’t make sense for a majority government.

This prospect has a slight calming effect on the Conservative caucus. It gives them breathing room to think about policy, and maybe leadership.

The Liberals need Trump in much the same way that Poilievre needed former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Once Trump is gone in 2028, Liberal support could fracture, just as Conservative backing did once Trudeau was out the door.

That’s the thinking of some Conservatives, anyway. They need arguments to calm a caucus riven by cries of betrayal.

The real issue is how long Poilievre can survive this parade of defections.

Meanwhile, we have to wonder how the latest crosser will fare.

Gladu kept talking long after Carney started fidgeting, ignoring a key rule of politics — never upstage the boss.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

X and Bluesky: @DonBraid

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