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Regime Change in the Iran War, But Which One?

Photograph Source: Staff Sgt. Madelyn Keech – Public Domain

Last June 2025 Trump bombed Iran. He said to eliminate Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development. He then proclaimed he had achieved that goal. So what then is the War about now? What’s the US strategic objective? The endgame?

In the midst of the recent Epstein scandal, Israel’s Netanyahu a week ago visited the White House again demanding the US once more attack Iran. This time he demanded Trump and the US wipe out Iran’s ballistic missile capability, demand that Iran cut all ties with its proxy supporters in the region, dismantle its Revolutionary Guard units, and agree to turn over all its remaining domestic use nuclear fissionable materials.

Trump accommodated him. He mobilized a third of all US air force and naval assets to the region and engaged the Iranians in negotiations. He then declared publicly a ‘deal’ was imminent, and that Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed to all US-Israel demands on nuclear materials. Oman’s foreign minister, who hosted the negotiations, also publicly declared a deal was concluded by the parties on nuclear arms development. He had even prepared the final papers for the parties to sign. The signing was interrupted, however, as Trump ordered a massive military strike on Iran—once again in the midst of negotiations!

While Trump agreed to Netanyahu’s demands, he simultaneously ignored the advice of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff US admiral who advised him the US military could not guarantee a short and successful war with Iran. Not the news he wanted to hear. He and Netanyahu had already agreed to go to war. Trump promptly removed the admiral from his post!

Thus, once again the US went to war in the middle east on behalf of Israel. The objective was and remains regime change in Iran. Not nuclear arms development. Not even ballistic missile development. The objective was and is regime change.

The most fundamental strategic fact of this war is the following:

Trump wants a short war, two weeks or less. His talking heads pro-war retired generals appearing on US mainstream media daily—i.e. Kean, Kellogg and others—parrot the neocon-Zionist view that the war can be won in just two weeks, three at most. All it takes is a massive air campaign, decapitation of Iran leaders, and a call for a popular uprising to topple the Iranian regime. After all, it took less in Venezuela.

In contrast to the US-Trump-Netanyahu strategy of a short war, Iran plans a long war. It knows the longer the war, the weaker Trump and the US will get. Iran believes closing the strait of Hormuz will drive up oil prices, globally and in the US to unacceptable levels before the critical US Congressional elections in November. Higher oil prices will shock a US economy, barely growing 1.4% at the end of 2025 and a European economy virtually stagnant or in recession. Iran knows global oil prices at $100 a barrel in today’s economy will precipitate a global oil supply shock worse than that which occurred in 1973 and 1979, which led to deep recessions in both cases. Closing the strait of Hormuz, which Iran did immediately, will take at least 20% of global oil supply off the market. This will not only lead to domestic inflation and less real economic growth in the West, but will also likely lead to a sharp contraction in stock markets in the US, already showing recent signs of severe volatility. Higher oil prices, inflation and supply shocks will also likely ensure a further devaluation of the US dollar, which under Trump has already fallen by more than 10% this past year. A further devaluation may also in turn convince a number of other countries to accelerate their shift out of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Gold and Silver prices will accelerate in turn faster than they have, after having quadrupled in 2025 under Trump.

In other words, a long war is the strategic goal of Iran and a short war the strategic goal of Trump.

And Trump’s short war thus far is not going well in terms of regime change. By assassinating Iran’s Supreme religious leader, Ali Khamenei, in the first US-Israel missile strike of the war two days ago Trump has made any uprising in Iran impossible. The Iranian government has not been destroyed. Nor has its Revolutionary Guard. Some military sites have been destroyed. So has a girls school where 100 elementary school children were murdered by an Israeli missile strike. Just think how Americans might react had some foreign power killed 100 American school kids with a missile! And it wasn’t likely an accident. US satellite surveillance can detect facial features on individuals from space; it certainly can determine if a building is a school or not.

If one may use a metaphor, the parties at war—i.e. US & Israel against Iran—are like two professional boxers, champions fighting for the big prize money. Venezuela was a lightweight fighting the US heavyweight for the title. It never even came out of its corner. But Iran is at least a light heavyweight, punching above its weight, as they say. It’s not so easily intimidated and has come out of its corner swinging.

The first round has been concluded. Trump got in some good jabs at first (with Israel is his corner pumping Trump up in his corner with encouragement like “you can go it champ, just go hit him in the head’): Some Iranian government official have been decapitated. Some military sites as well. All jabs not knock out blows. A low blow was dealt by Trump, killing school kids but the referee did not disqualify him. Trump even got in a good ‘right cross’ by killing Khamenei.

But Iran has also thrown some punches as well, although you’d never know it by the western media fight announcer. It has heavily damaged a number of the US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Dubai in the Gulf. It has attacked US ships, requiring them to remain far offshore even if not hit. That means US aircraft if launched have to be refueled in return flight putting them in danger. Iran has also thrown some feints at Israel, sending some drones and old missiles. The idea is to deplete US and Israel anti-missile defenses in Israel which, once depleted, will be followed with tens of thousands of drones and more advanced missiles at some point. Those too are just jabs. But Iran has gotten in a good left hook as well: it has taken out the straight of Hormuz. Over time that ‘body blow’ will wreck havoc on US, Europe and the West’s economies in general. Iran is in no hurry. It plans to drive the US out of the Gulf states. It plans to turn up the long term heat on Trump the closer time gets to the November elections in the US. It plans a long war to Trump’s short one,

Iran is looking at a many months-long conflict, at least to the end of this year. Trump needs a a knockout blow in two or no more than three weeks.

Whoever’s time frame prevails determines who gets a regime change first—Iran or Trump! The US and Trump can’t get regime change without decapitating more of the Iranian government and the Revolutionary Guards and by the CIA engineering another uprising—not likely now that they assassinated Iran’s Supreme Religious leader, Khamenei, making him a martyr around which the country may mobilize. Trump made sure it was a religious war. Iran’s strategy is not tactical-military. It’s strategic, economic and US domestic election. Iran doesn’t need to ‘win’; it just needs to not lose. And to drag it all out as long as possible.

Trump may have his regime change in the end…but it may be his own regime not Iran.

That’s not all the consequences of a long term conflict. Some other consequences should the war in Iran prove long term (i.e. 12 months) instead of short (2 weeks):

The longer the war, the higher global oil prices and US inflation and the risk of US stock market declines and more US dollar devaluation. But also the higher the oil price the more oil revenue Russia can obtain. That will all but negate any of the recent US-Europe sanctions’ effect on reducing Russian oil revenue. The more Russian oil revenue, the more resources it has to continue the war in Ukraine successfully.

The longer the Iran war, the more dependent China becomes on Russian oil and the closer the two countries integrate their economies and deepen their political alliance. China obtained a significant amount of its oil from Iran. With the Hormuz straight closed, it must now (and has already announced) import even more oil from Russia.

The longer the war the more disruption to global supply chains become in general and the more that such a disruption—together with rising oil prices—the faster the US dollar will devaluate. The more the devaluation the faster other countries, led by the BRICS, will move toward introducing their own currency. No country wants to hold a currency devaluing by 15-20%. They’ll substitute it with Gold and Silver at first but then, out of a necessity, turn to a new currency arrangement. And as the dollar collapses, so will the US global economic empire’s decline accelerate.

A long war also means a European Economy, already in deep stagnation and losing competitively to US and China in global markets, will likely fall into recession. Natural gas prices in Europe, already wrecking havoc on European industry, will rise even higher as it gets most of it from Persian Gulf emirates.

The longer the conflict, the more likely Yemen will renew attacking shipping in the Red Sea and close off that other critical global shipping transit point as well.  And the more likely that Hamas and Hezbollah will throw whatever resources they have left into what is already becoming a region wide war. They have nothing to lose if regime change occurs in Iran. So they’ll resume the fight against Israel intensely with whatever resources they have left. So too will pro-Iran religious forces in Iraq, which are considerable, and in Syria. Then there’s other Islamic nations like Pakistan, already favoring Iran.

A failed US-Israel regime change operation in the long run will all but ensure that Iran now will do all it can to renew development of nuclear weapons.

The Trump tactic of using negotiations as a deception to lull opponents into thinking a deal is possible, while a military strike is planned and then launched, is a regime change card that will likely never be played again after Iran. Trump may call for negotiations himself again at some point should the conflict continue for more than two weeks. Maybe even sooner. But Iran has already said it won’t negotiate with him again. Trump used negotiations as a deception tactic recently in Venezuela. It’s now a pattern in his bag of regime change tricks. But no one will trust the US again. Russia too will have second thoughts (if not already) about the purpose of Trump negotiations with about Ukraine. Negotiations with the US are never about a deal and always about deception, about buying time, until further military action is possible.

In summary, regime change has always been the objective of the US-Israel war on Iran. It’s now clearly out in the open. It’s what Netanyahu has always demanded of Trump. It’s what Zionist forces in Israel, and US Zionist billionaires who bankrolled Trump in 2024, have always been demanding. As history will someday no doubt reveal, Trump has agreed to Natanyahu’s demands—and did so even above the recommendations of his own US Joint Chiefs of Staff military advisor.

It all turns on how long the war in Iran lasts. Time is on the side of Iran. Trump thinks he can pull off another victory in Iran in the short run, as he did in Venezuela. But Iran is not Venezuela. It has greater stockpiles of weapons and missiles. It has advanced weaponry of its own. It has the assistance of Russia and China and more can be expected. Both countries have publicly declared Iran is strategic and that they will never let it fall. And, unlike what remains today of the Venezuelan government, Iran will no longer play the negotiations deception game, or capitulate, or give the US carte blanche whatever it demands.

Get ready for another ‘forever war’. This time Trump’s. But really Netanyahu’s.

Jack Rasmus is author of  ’The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump, Clarity Press, January 2020. He blogs at jackrasmus.com and hosts the weekly radio show, Alternative Visions on the Progressive Radio Network on Fridays at 2pm est. His twitter handle is @drjackrasmus.

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