How Pakistan’s largest mineral discovery could either anchor a new industrial economy — or repeat a familiar extract-and-export cycle

Pakistan’s renewed optimism around the Reko Diq copper-gold project is understandable. Global demand for copper is accelerating due to electrification, electric vehicles and renewable energy. At the same time, international interest in Balochistan’s mineral potential is expanding beyond Reko Diq, with several strategic minerals now attracting global attention.

Publicly available estimates suggest that by the early 2030s, Balochistan’s 25 percent equity stake in Reko Diq could generate revenues comparable to the province’s current annual budget. These are large numbers — but numbers alone do not define economic transformation. The deeper question is whether Reko Diq will integrate Pakistan into global industrial supply chains, or whether it will remain primarily a source of raw-material exports.

A long-term asset, not a short-term rescue

Reko Diq is unquestionably a world-class copper-gold deposit. However, large-scale commercial production is not expected until around 2030–2032. This means that for the rest of this decade, it will not meaningfully contribute to foreign-exchange earnings or fiscal stability.

Its importance lies in what it can anchor over the next 30 to 40 years — not in what it will deliver next year.

What Reko Diq will actually export

A critical point often missed in public discussion is the nature of the product. Reko Diq is expected to export copper concentrate — a semi-processed material containing roughly 25–30 percent copper,........

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