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It seems we’re walking along the top of Table Mountain after all. By the end of last week, market-based forecasts for rate cuts by the end of this year had been pared to their lowest in six months. If the futures market, as gauged by Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probabilities function, has it right, we should now expect only two rate cuts by the end of 2024, with a 50/50 shot of a third. In the terms of the current monetary policy debate, which treats moves in interest rates according to their resemblance to famous mountains, this is not the steep up-and-down Matterhorn, but South Africa’s Table Mountain — rates stay flat at an extended plateau for a while before starting their descent:

QOSHE - The World Is Flat for Interest Rates - John Authers
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The World Is Flat for Interest Rates

5 1
08.04.2024

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It seems we’re walking along the top of Table Mountain after all. By the end of........

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