Lebanon is once again standing at the edge of a precipice, facing a combination of internal fragmentation, external pressure, and geopolitical vulnerability that is pushing the country toward a potential conflict with catastrophic consequences. The latest escalation was triggered by reports that US envoy Tom Barrack has given Beirut an ultimatum: disarm Hezbollah by the end of November, or risk an Israeli military operation. Though some observers argue that Washington is simply raising the stakes ahead of negotiations, Lebanon does not enjoy the luxury of such high-risk maneuvering. The situation on the ground is already too volatile, too tense, and too exposed to leave anything to chance.

Inside Lebanon, the political atmosphere has deteriorated beyond harsh rhetoric and into legal confrontation. Parliamentarians aligned with the Lebanese Forces have filed a formal complaint against Hezbollah’s secretary-general Naim Qassem, accusing him of inciting a civil war. According to sources familiar with the matter, prior back-channel conversations between the two camps have now completely collapsed. This breakdown is significant: Lebanese politics, fragile as they are, rely heavily on informal communication to diffuse tensions before they evolve into crises. The absence of dialogue signals a new and dangerous chapter.

Meanwhile, Washington has intensified its pressure on the group by imposing a new round of sanctions on Hezbollah operatives involved in Lebanon’s increasingly cash-driven economy. These sanctions, aimed at squeezing the organization financially, have cornered Hezbollah further. But a cornered entity-especially one with the military prowess and political influence Hezbollah wields-can act unpredictably. As one observer put it, “A cornered animal will attack and will not acquiesce.” Under intense pressure from abroad and growing hostility at home, the group’s behavior becomes harder to forecast.

The regional landscape is just as alarming. On November 9, Israel’s Haaretz

© Blitz