Lebanon stands once again on the edge of a precipice it knows all too well. The country’s fragile political system, broken economy, and deep internal divisions have combined with intensifying regional hostilities to create an atmosphere filled with dread and uncertainty. At the center of this gathering storm is the never-ending confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, a conflict shaped by shifting regional alliances, domestic paralysis, and the conflicting ambitions of local and foreign powers.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long presented himself as the leader best equipped to defend Israel against what he calls “existential threats.” This doctrine has only hardened since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, which Israeli officials cite repeatedly as the ultimate justification for extending their military operations into Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and beyond.

The Gaza ceasefire, reluctantly accepted under heavy international pressure, has not changed Netanyahu’s operational calculus. Israel continues to carry out targeted strikes, arguing that ceasefires do not apply to those who “violate security understandings” or pose emerging threats. The pattern is familiar: Israel launches an attack, then justifies it by accusing the other side of violating the truce first. This logic, used throughout the Gaza conflict, is now applied aggressively in Lebanon.

Netanyahu’s government has made it clear that the war will not be considered “won” until Israel has decisively neutralized all sources of danger-including Hezbollah, a far more formidable adversary than Hamas. Israeli officials openly declare that they will not wait for threats to grow and will instead strike preemptively based on their own assessment of emerging risks. This has effectively erased the boundary between active conflict and ceasefire.

The November 23 Israeli attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs did not come as a surprise to those following regional developments.........

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