The frequent meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2026 may suggest that Washington and Beijing are entering a more stable phase of their relationship. Yet beneath the diplomatic ceremonies, flattering remarks and promises of cooperation, the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies remains deeply entrenched. Their engagement has helped prevent tensions from escalating, but it has produced few substantive agreements capable of resolving their most consequential disputes.

The two leaders met in China in May and in Washington in September, with further encounters potentially scheduled for November and December. Trump has described the relationship in glowing terms, claiming that the two countries have made “tremendous strides” and that their leaders have never got along better. However, diplomatic warmth should not be mistaken for strategic progress. The central questions surrounding trade, advanced technology, Taiwan and global security remain largely unresolved.

The September summit was therefore less a historic breakthrough than an exercise in managing an increasingly complicated rivalry. Both governments appear to recognize the economic and geopolitical costs of confrontation, but neither is prepared to abandon the strategic advantages it believes are essential to its long-term interests.

Diplomacy without decisive progress

One of the clearest indications of the relationship’s fragility is the limited progress achieved on major international challenges. Washington has sought greater Chinese cooperation on the Iran crisis, but Beijing has offered no significant new assistance that would transform the diplomatic calculations surrounding the conflict.

Artificial intelligence presents another area where expectations exceed tangible results. The proposed US-China Super Intelligence Dialogue and the establishment of a communication channel for reporting AI incidents could provide useful mechanisms for discussing emerging risks. However, their practical value will depend on whether both governments are willing to exchange meaningful information and establish common safeguards.

The stakes are considerable. Artificial intelligence is becoming central to economic competitiveness, military capabilities and national security. Washington and Beijing have strong incentives to prevent technological competition from producing catastrophic consequences, yet both also fear that excessive cooperation could benefit the other side strategically.

Without concrete commitments, dialogue risks becoming a........

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