The crash of a Russian-made Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone in Türkiye’s Kocaeli province has raised serious questions that go far beyond a technical malfunction. Coming shortly after an unidentified UAV was intercepted by Turkish F-16s on a NATO/national mission, the incident has triggered speculation over whether these events are isolated accidents—or part of a broader, calculated test of Türkiye’s airspace, defenses, and strategic posture, particularly amid growing tensions around the Black Sea.

Speaking to Azernews, military expert Abdullah Aghar offered a detailed assessment of what these developments could signify.

"One unidentified UAV entered Turkish airspace and was shot down by our F-16 on a NATO/national mission. Let’s say that was a coincidence. But what about the Russian Orlan-10 UAV that crashed in Izmit? The possibility of this being a coincidence is weaker.

I am thinking: could someone be testing the balance between Turkish air defense capabilities, capacity, and rhetoric? Could someone be trying to move the war to the Black Sea?

Due to attacks by warring parties, system errors, or technical malfunctions, UAVs can go out of control and lose their way. This is a normal wartime situation, as seen both during the Garabagh War and frequently in the Ukraine war. But the question remains: is someone sending a message of infiltration into Turkish airspace? Or is someone trying to create asymmetry to heat up the Black Sea? Or are we facing a real-time side effect of the S-400 process?

The simultaneous entry of two UAVs into Turkish airspace, in my opinion, is a multi-layered situation that pushes the boundaries of ‘coincidence,’ but should not........

© AzerNews