Nasrallah’s calculated ambiguity includes message for Lebanon
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s first speech on the Israel-Hamas war was marked by “calculated ambiguity,” said Al-Monitor Senior News Editor Joyce Karam on Al-Monitor’s live webinar on the Israel-Hamas war.
“He said he is ready to escalate, but is not escalating the conflict,” said Karam.
Nasrallah has no reason to escalate now. The pressure is on Israel, and by extension the United States, as international calls for a cease-fire increase by the day, along with Palestinian civilian casualties. Nasrallah, and his backers in Iran, prefer to keep it that way.
Hezbollah is also not standing idly by. Clashes with Israeli forces have been ongoing, but in a kind of measured tit-for-tat that has been contained to border skirmishes. Nasrallah can claim his own casualties, or "martyrs," with at least 45 Hezbollah fighters killed since the start of the war.
Nasrallah said that Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which killed over 1,400 Israelis, was “100% Palestinian,” while praising the actions of Iraqi, Yemeni and other "resistance" militias against US and Israeli forces.
“Iranian-backed groups are exploiting their geographical leverage in Iraq, Syria and Yemen as well as Lebanon to increase the possibility of a regional conflict,” writes Ali Hashem. “In this regard, the message is mainly directed at the United States and its Western allies in the hope that launching rockets from Yemen and attacking US military positions in Syria and Iraq will push Washington to restrain Israel from a large-scale incursion into Gaza.”
Nasrallah’s message of restraint was also in part to “soothe concerns in Lebanon,” added Ali Hashem on today’s webinar. Given the country’s political turmoil and economic hardship, he needed to reassure people that while Hezbollah “is in the war, it is not going to war,” meaning that at least for now, Hezbollah will not bring the conflict to Lebanon.
Nasrallah is scheduled to speak again on Nov. 11.
Israel likely to avoid clash with US on humanitarian pause
Israel took Nasrallah’s speech as reassurance that a northern front is not in the cards for now, and can therefore keep the focus on Gaza.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in his fourth visit to Israel since Oct. 7, reiterated Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas while insisting that a humanitarian pause, and more aid, is necessary to help Palestinians in Gaza.
More than 9,200 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have been reported killed, and over 23,000 wounded in the war.
“Every person in Gaza goes to bed each night not knowing whether they will wake up or die in their sleep amid Israel's intensifying air bombardment that has left over 8,000 [now 9,000] people dead,” writes our correspondent in Gaza. “Hopelessness and fatalism are now a way of life, with no safe place in the enclave and no one knowing when or where the bombs will drop.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected any cease-fire that would not include the release of over 240 hostages held by Hamas, and any suggestions for fuel to be allowed into Gaza through Egypt, as it could be used for Hamas’ military forces.
Nonetheless, “the disagreements between Israel and the US on the humanitarian issue are not believed to be serious,” reports Ben Caspit. “While Israel is not happy about increasing aid, fearing it could prop up Hamas, it understands US President Joe Biden’s domestic political needs and does not see increased humanitarian supplies as a game-changer in the war.”
“While most public opinion in Israel strenuously objects to any cease-fire until Hamas is defeated, Israelis also understand that a pause of several hours does not signal an end to the war,” adds Caspit. “The Israeli government believes that the alliance with the United States is far too important to clash on this point.”
Blinken gets Israeli commitment on West Bank violence
“US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel’s leaders assured him they would confront the uptick in settler violence that is forcing Palestinians from their homes in the occupied West Bank," writes Elizabeth Hagedorn.
“The situation is very toxic, very dangerous. Most people are staying away from the roads,” said Al-Monitor Palestine columnist Daoud Kuttab on today’s webinar.
“At least 132 West Bank Palestinians, including 41 children, have reportedly been killed in military raids, violent clashes and settler attacks amid the war in neighboring Gaza,” reports Hagedorn. “Of those deaths, the UN attributed 124 of them to Israeli forces and eight to settlers. Two Israeli soldiers have been killed, it added.”
Blinken said Friday, “What I heard today was a clear commitment from the government to deal with extremist violence in the West Bank — to condemn it, to take action to prevent it, to take action against those who perpetrate it.”
“We will be looking closely to ensure that our friends make good on that commitment,” he added.
Gaza war deadliest for journalists since 1992
“Over 30 journalists have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war as of Friday, the majority of them Palestinians, making the conflict the deadliest for members of the press since 1992,” reports Adam Lucente.
“As of Friday, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) estimated that at least 36 journalists, most of whom were in Gaza, have been killed in the conflict. CPJ said the first few weeks of the war has been the deadliest period for journalists covering conflict since 1992, when it began tracking. Reporters Without Borders said on Wednesday that 34 journalists have been killed the start of the war,” adds Lucente.
Sweden NATO ratification not a done deal
“Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sent Sweden’s NATO accession to the Turkish parliament, ratification may not be a done deal, as Turkish officials say domestic developments in Turkey and Sweden could still complicate the final step,” writes Barin Kayaoglu.
The ratification process in the Turkish parliament, where Erdogan’s ruling party holds a majority, is "riddled with challenges,” adds Kayaoglu, including Ankara’s request to purchase new F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits , which is currently held up by the US Congress.
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