Despite all the wild speculation that the general elections there will get postponed, Pakistan finally went to the polls Thursday amidst a highly volatile and unstable political environment, a severely stressed economy and growing tensions in the borders. While the outcome of this election is mostly predictable with chances of former Prime Minister of Pakistan and Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif coming back to power for the fourth time, it will be a tough test for the new government there to settle the challenges facing that country.
Sharif, who had been on a self-imposed exile in London since 2019, came back to his home country last August eyeing a fourth term for himself as the prime minister of Pakistan. His return to Pakistan was, however, paved by his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, who created a coalition government with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in 2022. The coalition government, first of its kind in Pakistan, was created after former cricketer and PM Imran Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The coalition government left no stone unturned to ensure that Khan is put behind the bars while his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party gets decimated. They had no other agenda for Pakistan but to ensure that Khan is jailed and Sharif comes back to power.
Khan, 71, continues to remain in jail facing multiple cases against him that have resulted in him getting more than three decades of imprisonment. Despite being in a severely weak position, Khan’s popularity within Pakistan remains on a high quotient and that will be the single biggest challenge for the new government that comes to power. The Election Commission of Pakistan disqualified Khan from contesting the polls due to the corruption charges levelled against him. According to Pakistani laws, a person convicted for corruption charges cannot run for public office.
Khan, whose political career now looks rather bleak, had committed the mistake of taking the Army and the ISI head-on. The former cricketer was also accused of bringing the Taliban back to power in Afghanistan. Just as Khan was removed from the helm of affairs, the coalition government went on a massive witchhunt arresting hundreds of PTI workers and supporters. Khan was handed out three sentences just days before the election was to take place.
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Behind all that has happened in the past two years in Pakistan, one should not overlook the fact that it is their powerful Army and the ISI, which together constitute the ‘deep state’ that is pulling the strings. Just as Khan had a fallout with the Army and his political career was stopped from growing and his image plummeted, it was once Sharif who had faced the same situation when he decided to take on the Army. Therefore, for any government in Pakistan to have a stable tenure, it is the ‘deep state’ of Pakistan that they have to owe their allegiance to. The ‘deep state’ does not have to win any election, they are never discussed or spoken about, but Pakistan’s political apparatus is being run under their influence.
The Pakistani deep state does not believe in a democratic set-up and continues to destabilise the country’s political leadership, whosoever comes to power. So, even if Nawaz Sharif comes back as Pakistan’s prime minister for the fifth time, India should remain cautious. For New Delhi, the election in Pakistan is of utmost importance considering the fact that both are nuclear powers, and cross-border terrorism remains one of the biggest security challenges for New Delhi.
The new government in Pakistan, likely to be led by Nawaz Sharif, will attempt a rapprochement with India if his recent comments are to be considered seriously. Sharif had tried to normalise ties with India in 1999 and 2015, but failed as the ‘deep state’ never allowed the initiatives to fructify. But it is also true that if Sharif comes back he will once again try to revive the personal equation he had with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In May 2014, Sharif had attended Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. The gesture was reciprocated by the Indian PM who visited Pakistan in December 2015 to attend a wedding in Sharif’s family. That was the first visit to Pakistan by an Indian prime minister since 2004.
Both countries are expected to revive the dialogue between them that had remained suspended since the Pathankot attack that took place in January 2016. But back-channel talks continued to take place even as both sides came up with a joint statement in February 2021 agreeing to maintain the ceasefire understanding along the Line of Control (LoC). India’s Army Chief Gen. Manoj Pande recently said the ceasefire understanding continues to remain in place.
India is also expected to hold its own general elections in April-May this year and according to almost all predictions it could be the BJP led by PM Modi that will come back to power. It will be Pakistan’s time then to watch the outcome of Indian elections closely and thereafter it will kickstart its plan to revive the stalled dialogue with India. However, instead of the political leadership there India should not focus more on engaging with the deep state before it takes any major policy decision concerning the two-way ties. To begin with, both sides can look at upgrading diplomatic ties between both countries and deploying envoys in each other’s country. Besides, the two countries can also discuss resumption of bilateral trade that was suspended under Khan in 2019 as a response to India scrapping the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August that year.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
Pakistan Goes To Polls, Finally. India Should Remain Focussed On Deep State, Not Sharif
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0
08.02.2024
Despite all the wild speculation that the general elections there will get postponed, Pakistan finally went to the polls Thursday amidst a highly volatile and unstable political environment, a severely stressed economy and growing tensions in the borders. While the outcome of this election is mostly predictable with chances of former Prime Minister of Pakistan and Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif coming back to power for the fourth time, it will be a tough test for the new government there to settle the challenges facing that country.
Sharif, who had been on a self-imposed exile in London since 2019, came back to his home country last August eyeing a fourth term for himself as the prime minister of Pakistan. His return to Pakistan was, however, paved by his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, who created a coalition government with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in 2022. The coalition government, first of its kind in Pakistan, was created after former cricketer and PM Imran Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April 2022. The coalition government left no stone unturned to ensure that Khan is put behind the bars while his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party gets decimated. They had no other agenda for Pakistan but to ensure that Khan is jailed and Sharif comes back to power.
Khan, 71, continues to remain in jail facing multiple cases against him that have resulted in him getting more than three decades of imprisonment. Despite being in a........
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