Former exiled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan may not be that much of a good news for India. His return after four years only validates the fact that it is after all the Army as well as the ‘Deep State’ that are still calling the shots there. Also, a lot has changed between New Delhi and Islamabad in these four years since Sharif was sent to exile. The former PM has been one of those rare leaders in Pakistan who keeps going in and out of the political stage there due to his popular appeal not just inside that country but also outside, including in India. However, India may be dealing with a different Nawaz this time, though.
Firstly, let us not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Nawaz, the only political leader who has been the Prime Minister of Pakistan thrice, has always extended the hand of friendship toward India only to stab us on our back later on. For those who refuse to see the past, it was under Nawaz Sharif and the only Pakistan PM so far that India ended up having a war with the neighbour – the Kargil War of 1999. Just months before that, in February 1999, then Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Sharif had signed a peace deal under the Lahore Declaration. While Sharif was quite smart enough to blame it all on the then Pakistan Army Chief Pervez Musharraf, the truth came out exposing Sharif when once again under his prime ministership an Indian Army camp in Uri came under terror attack in September 2016.
Denying Pakistan’s role in that, Sharif this time blamed it on the Indian government for mistreating the Kashmiris. “The Uri attack can be the reaction of the atrocities in Kashmir, as the close relatives and near and dear ones of those killed and blinded over the last two months were hurt and outraged,” he had told the media then.
It was due to Uri that India, then under PM Narendra Modi, carried out the “surgical strikes” when the Indian Army claimed to have destroyed terrorist launch pads used by militants with the support of Pakistan Army. Then came the Nagrota Army base attacks in November 2016, just two months after Uri.
Before Uri and Nagrota, there was yet another attack — on the Pathankot air base in January 2016, for which India even opened its doors to a probe team from Pakistan in March 2016, which included ISI officials. That was the first time when India allowed Pakistani intelligence and police officials to come to India. Such an unprecedented step was taken by India because, like Vajpayee, PM Modi too got enamoured by Sharif. After all, Sharif had come to Modi’s swearing-in in May 2014 and in a reciprocal gesture Modi landed in Pakistan in December 2015, the first Indian PM to visit that country in more than 10 years, and photos of their hug at the Allama Iqbal International Airport beamed through television sets all across the world.
However, after Pathankot, Uri and Nagrota, India decided to close all channels of communication with Pakistan, with New Delhi taking the stance that terror and talks cannot go together.
Nawaz Sharif will also play a different strategy with India this time as he is well aware of the fact that much changed between both countries during his absence from Pakistan. There has been a Pulwama attack (February 2019), followed by Balakot airstrikes by the Indian Air Force, into Pakistan, which led India to withdraw the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade status granted to Islamabad. Then, in August 2019, India did what Pakistan dreaded the most — the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan, under now-jailed former PM Imran Khan, decided to downgrade diplomatic ties between both countries with the respective high commissioners being recalled.
Keep An Eye On Pak Army, ISI
No wonder why Sharif, 73, raised the issue of Kashmir as he addressed the mega rally in Lahore’s Minar-e-Pakistan, which saw a monstrous crowd gathered to listen to him. In the same breath, he spoke of having “good relations” with India. But make no mistake, Sharif was only parroting the words that have been fed to him by the Pakistani military establishment. It is the very same Pakistani military establishment that threw Sharif out to get Khan in has now got the former back keeping the latter locked in a jail.
The Deep State, however, may not make him PM this time and will seek to find a replacement while Nawaz will continue to play the role of attracting crowds, and thereby votes. Besides, Nawaz Sharif is needed by the Pakistani military establishment to keep Khan in check. But it will not be that easy for the Deep State too. The Pakistani population, though, has now tasted some bit of success in pushing the military back. They know well by now that it is Khan who can rattle the establishment from the core.
Nawaz Sharif, if he comes back to power, will also face the new and emerging challenge of Afghanistan over Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistani Taliban. During his speech in Lahore, which looked like an election victory speech, Sharif gave a long plan on how he plans to revive Pakistan’s collapsing economy. But he will be able to do all that only if he wins the elections that are expected to be held in 2024. Except for Punjab, however, it will be difficult for the PMLN to make any dent in the popularity gained by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI).
Therefore, political stability remains a pipedream for now because if Nawaz Sharif indeed comes back to power, it is clear that democracy is over in Pakistan and other political parties will get the signal, as they well understand even now, that the prime minister can be instilled only by the military and history will keep repeating itself.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
Nawaz Sharif Is Back In Pakistan. But India Shouldn’t Be Too Happy
6
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28.10.2023
Former exiled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan may not be that much of a good news for India. His return after four years only validates the fact that it is after all the Army as well as the ‘Deep State’ that are still calling the shots there. Also, a lot has changed between New Delhi and Islamabad in these four years since Sharif was sent to exile. The former PM has been one of those rare leaders in Pakistan who keeps going in and out of the political stage there due to his popular appeal not just inside that country but also outside, including in India. However, India may be dealing with a different Nawaz this time, though.
Firstly, let us not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Nawaz, the only political leader who has been the Prime Minister of Pakistan thrice, has always extended the hand of friendship toward India only to stab us on our back later on. For those who refuse to see the past, it was under Nawaz Sharif and the only Pakistan PM so far that India ended up having a war with the neighbour – the Kargil War of 1999. Just months before that, in February 1999, then Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Sharif had signed a peace deal under the Lahore Declaration. While Sharif was quite smart enough to blame it all on the then Pakistan Army Chief Pervez Musharraf, the truth came out exposing Sharif when once again under his prime ministership an Indian Army camp in Uri came under terror attack in September 2016.
Denying Pakistan’s role in........
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