Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu may have taken a clear and unambiguous turn towards China while drifting away from India, but New Delhi should remain firm in its stance towards Malé as far as defence security aspects are concerned. The Narendra Modi government should take each and every step with the island nation in a cautious manner while avoiding taking any hasty decision like suspending the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). India had halted this crucial dialogue that used to take place annually amongst the National Security Advisors (NSA) of India, Maldives and Sri Lanka in 2014 as the then government in Malé had aligned with China in a similar manner.
The world in 2014, when the Narendra Modi government decided to put a break on CSC, was a much different place. Today, it is riddled with conflicts that have not even spared the maritime domain on which crucial global commerce traverses. Today India’s national security is closely aligned with the security of the maritime domain as geopolitical tensions grow deeper in the high seas. The US and UK have not shied away from mobilising their fighter aircraft to fight the Houthis as the group has threatened to disrupt international trade by attacking merchant ships.
While India has also got involved with the crisis brewing around the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden with the Indian Navy deploying as many as 10 warships, challenges in the maritime domain are going to increase manifold for New Delhi with Maldives allowing Chinese ships to dock there. Earlier this week, the Muizzu government gave the green signal to China allowing it to send its spy vessel Xian Yang Hong 03 in Malé in early February. Confirming the visit by the Chinese “research vessel” on Tuesday, the Maldivian government said it will continue to welcome such ships from “friendly countries” be it civilian or military. The Muizzu government also said port calls by vessels from partner countries enhances bilateral ties even as it took a decisive shift to move away from India.
The Chinese research ship Xian Yang Hong 03 is expected to reach Malé on 8 February. It is currently sailing in the Java Sea. The visit by the Chinese ship comes within days after Muizzu’s historic visit to China, which was his first state visit since assuming charge as the President of Maldives. During his weeklong visit to China, President Muizzu and Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to upgrade their bilateral ties to ‘Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership’. For India, such a pivot away from New Delhi by Maldives is not a new phenomenon. Neither is the Modi government unaware of Maldives closeness with China before.
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When Prime Minister Modi first came to power in May 2014, Maldives was under the rule of Abdulla Yameen, who was also staunchly anti-India and had befriended Beijing as a significant foreign policy move. It was then the Modi government took the impetuous decision to suspend the crucial CSC, which began in 2011 as a trilateral maritime security grouping. It remained in hiatus till the later half of 2020. The CSC was revived only in November 2020 by inducting Mauritius as the new permanent member and Bangladesh and the Seychelles as observers. At one point, even Pakistan had expressed interest to enter CSC but the matter was effectively thwarted. Today, the CSC has become a critical dialogue mechanism amongst the National Security Advisors of these countries that is purely aimed at the security and stability of the Indian Ocean. The security and stability of the Indian Ocean is now also linked with the Indo-Pacific strategic construct, with the US keeping a closely eye on the region as it counters China.
Not just from the viewpoint of countering terrorism emerging from the high seas, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has shown how a conflict that is being played out violently on the land can also spill out on the seas with merchant ships becoming part of the collateral damage. The recent spate of attacks on commercial vessels by Houthis on the Red Sea has rattled countries like the U.S. and the U.K., which have launched joint military attacks inside Yemen targeting Houthi strongholds there. India has also been witnessing international merchant ships being attacked close to its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) forcing the Indian Navy to deploy warships, drones and surveillance aircraft there. All these activities point only to one fact: that an NSA-level dialogue amongst the Indian Ocean countries is both crucial as well as critical.
When the Secretariat for CSC was set up in Colombo in 2021, it was envisioned that the CSC will provide crucial intel-based inputs to not just address India’s growing strategic concerns but also enable greater integration with the island and littoral nations. The CSC has proven to be useful for combating trafficking and transnational organised crime, cybersecurity and protection of critical infrastructure and technology and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, apart from countering terrorism and radicalisation.
The CSC has proved to be critical even from the point of view of greater defence interoperability amongst the Indian Ocean countries. In November 2021, a maiden joint naval wargame was conducted by the coast guards of India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives to bolster security in the Indian Ocean, enhance mutual operational capability and exercise interoperability, called ‘Operation Dosti XV’. The CSC’s effective espionage network has helped all these countries. But if India is now planning to suspend the CSC due to Muizzu’s growing affinity towards China, it will prove to be counterproductive for New Delhi.
The basic idea behind reviving CSC in 2020 was the need to stand up to China’s assertiveness in the region. While the other members of the CSC are still cosying up to Beijing owing to their smaller size, the bilateral relationship between New Delhi and Beijing is at its lowest ebb with both countries facing a military standoff at the border. But it will not be prudent for India to also shut the doors against those who are aligning more with China. In fact, India should not only continue with the CSC, it should push for its expansion and include Australia in it. This way it will have one of the strong members of the Five Eyes in the grouping.
China has a military base in Djibouti strategically located in the Horn of Africa. Beijing also manages the Gwadar Port in Pakistan. China is also managing a significant portion of the Colombo Port while controlling the entire Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. So in a way, it has already encircled India. Therefore, the NSA-level talks under the aegis of CSC will always enable India to keep itself better prepared in facing an adversary in the maritime sector.
The Muizzu government has already come under scathing criticism from the opposition parties there for taking a sharp turn against India even as Malé has asked India to remove all its military personnel stationed there by March. The opposition parties in Maldives – The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and The Democrats – have issued a joint statement in which it stated: “The current administration appears to be making a stark pivot towards an anti-India stance. Both the MDP and The Democrats believe alienating any development partner, and especially the country's most long-standing ally will be extremely detrimental to the long-term development of the country. Consecutive governments of the country must be able to work with all development partners for the benefit of the people of the Maldives, as the Maldives has traditionally done. Stability and security in the Indian Ocean is vital to the stability and security of the Maldives.”
Therefore, just as India has decided that it will not remove its military personnel from Maldives as yet, similarly, it should not suspend the CSC and rather push forward with the agenda that was decided during the last round of talks which took place in Port Louis, Mauritius in December 2023 in which the member countries agreed to a roadmap aimed at maintaining security and stability of the Indian Ocean.
Maldives was inconspicuously absent from this and only India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius participated. While this was read as one of the initial steps by Maldives to distance itself from India, New Delhi should ensure that Malé continues to be a part of this. In fact, India is going to be hosting the next round of the CSC talks and it should make sure that Maldives is invited and also participates in the talks. New Delhi must remember that after all, it was India and Maldives that founded the earlier version of the CSC way back in 1995 as part of bi-annual Maldives-India Coast Guard exercises that germinated from ‘Operation Cactus’ – a military operation that took place in November 1988 when India saved Maldives from a coup.
Muizzu Embraces China, Allows Spy Ship. But, India Shouldn’t Suspend Colombo Security Conclave This Time
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25.01.2024
Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu may have taken a clear and unambiguous turn towards China while drifting away from India, but New Delhi should remain firm in its stance towards Malé as far as defence security aspects are concerned. The Narendra Modi government should take each and every step with the island nation in a cautious manner while avoiding taking any hasty decision like suspending the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). India had halted this crucial dialogue that used to take place annually amongst the National Security Advisors (NSA) of India, Maldives and Sri Lanka in 2014 as the then government in Malé had aligned with China in a similar manner.
The world in 2014, when the Narendra Modi government decided to put a break on CSC, was a much different place. Today, it is riddled with conflicts that have not even spared the maritime domain on which crucial global commerce traverses. Today India’s national security is closely aligned with the security of the maritime domain as geopolitical tensions grow deeper in the high seas. The US and UK have not shied away from mobilising their fighter aircraft to fight the Houthis as the group has threatened to disrupt international trade by attacking merchant ships.
While India has also got involved with the crisis brewing around the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden with the Indian Navy deploying as many as 10 warships, challenges in the maritime domain are going to increase manifold for New Delhi with Maldives allowing Chinese ships to dock there. Earlier this week, the Muizzu government gave the green signal to China allowing it to send its spy vessel Xian Yang Hong 03 in Malé in early February. Confirming the visit by the Chinese “research vessel” on Tuesday, the Maldivian government said it will continue to welcome such ships from “friendly countries” be it civilian or military. The Muizzu government also said port calls by vessels from partner countries enhances bilateral ties even as it took a decisive shift to move away from India.
The Chinese research ship Xian Yang Hong 03 is expected to reach Malé on 8 February. It is currently sailing in the Java Sea. The visit by the Chinese ship comes within days after Muizzu’s historic visit to China, which was his........
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