Indian diplomacy witnessed significant highs as well as lows — from hosting the G20 Summit for the first time since it became a member of the multilateral grouping, to being accused of plotting the killings of anti-India elements by some of its key partners like the United States and Canada, a development that has the potential to disrupt the growth in the two-way ties. Indian foreign policy also came under considerable scrutiny in 2023 for the stance it took in the decades-old Israel-Palestine conflict that peaked over Hamas even as the Russia-Ukraine conflict that started in 2022 continues to give headaches to New Delhi, testing its tenacity.
The year 2023 also saw India losing its friendly ties with a close neighbour, Maldives, and the threat of Chinese influence increasing there has become imminent. The coming year, India might experience a more aggressive neighbourhood with monumental challenges even as Bangladesh and Pakistan gear up for elections there. India itself will be witnessing another mega election season in mid-2024 with Prime Minister Narendra Modi eyeing a third term promising to make India top three economies of the world. Meanwhile, the dealings with Afghanistan remain shrouded in secrecy as New Delhi continues to deal with the Taliban regime in Kabul but cannot officially recognise it.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also vowed to host a number of global events, in an indirect hint towards his plans to rule for another five years. Recently, at the COP28 Summit, Modi proposed that India will host the climate summit in 2028. His government’s plans to host the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad Summit, in January 2024 came crashing down as US President Joe Biden turned down the invite to visit India. He was also supposed to be the chief guest at Republic Day celebrations. The Quad meeting, which also includes Australia and Japan, will now be held in the later part of 2024.
In 2022, as Russia declared war on Ukraine, Indian foreign policy and its diplomatic community were subjected to thorough scrutiny, particularly by the European countries, on what stance will New Delhi take — whether it will be against Moscow or not. Top security officials and foreign ministers from key European nations – be it Germany, France or Denmark — all wanted India to rebuke Russia, which continues to be New Delhi’s biggest arms supplier.
When the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, 2023, India became one of the first countries to express solidarity with Israel, and once again New Delhi was subjected to global scrutiny questioning if India has moved away from the two-nation theory that the country has always followed when it came to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Historically, India has shared a friendly relationship with Palestine while its closeness with Israel developed much later. But under PM Modi, bilateral ties between India and Israel soared with enhanced cooperation from defence to irrigation. Modi was the first leader from the so-called Global South to phone his Israeli counterpart and express concerns.
However, despite repeated requests by Israel, New Delhi has not yet technically recognised Hamas as a terrorist organisation even as it tried to play a tough balancing act at the United Nations. In October this year, India abstained from voting for a UNGA resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza as it did not condemn Hamas. But on December 13, it voted for a similar resolution even though there was not a word mentioned about Hamas there.
Of Death Rows & 'Assassination Plots'
Year 2024 will also shape India’s relationship with the Middle East in the context of the death penalty being given to eight Indian Navy veterans by Qatar. Despite repeated requests by India, Qatar has not yet pardoned the former Indian Navy men. How this will play out eventually will come to define how India will deal with other countries in the Middle East and vice versa.
The entire Middle East was up in arms against India when the Nupur Sharma and Naveen Jindal episode happened in 2022. Sharma and Jindal, two key BJP spokespersons, now suspended, made controversial remarks against Prophet Muhammad. India’s diplomatic community had to do a major firefighting at that time. It is clear that this time also all other countries of the Middle East will closely watch how the death row issue of the eight Indian Navy officers pan out. The Qatari authorities have made allegations that the eight Indians, who were working there, were engaged in espionage activities.
Meanwhile, India is now embroiled in a mega controversy with two major western powers – United States and Canada – for allegedly planning the murder of Khalistani extremists Hardeep Singh Nijjar and Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. Nijjar was killed in Canada while Pannun, an American and Canadian citizen, is still alive. With Canada, India went into a diplomatic row of sorts asking some of their diplomats to leave India so as to achieve parity. While the matter was still being scrutinised, the US Department of Justice came out with an explosive indictment against an Indian named Nikhil Gupta who was employed by an Indian government official.
In an effort to avoid a major diplomatic showdown with the US, New Delhi promptly set up an inquiry committee. In 2024, US Presidential elections will be held but this issue has only shaken things up between New Delhi and Washington. Whatever the outcome may be, the growing strategic closeness between both countries may suffer a body blow if the matters head southwards.
Neighbourhood First To Hit Roadblock In 2024?
Year 2024 will also see India being surrounded by rather aggressive or unfriendly neighbours throwing up challenges to Prime Minister Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. While Bangladesh may see Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina coming to power for the fourth term, it will not be easy for her to pacify the US, which has brought her under the human rights scanner. Even if she comes back to power, the violence that has been unleashed by the Islamist fundamentalist group Jamaat-e-Islami there will continue posing a security challenge for India.
As Manipur continues to burn, the Jamaat can carry on activities in India’s northeast, which is already seeing escalating tensions due to a steady flow of refugees from military ruled-Myanmar. The Northeastern states, which are landlocked with Bangladesh and Myanmar, are connected to India only through the Siliguri Corridor.
Sri Lanka will continue to play the balancing act but the tilt will be more towards China as Colombo struggles to keep its economy stabilised after the 2022 mass protests. Sri Lanka will also not shy away from posing security challenges for India as it develops military ties with China. The continuous visit of Chinese spy ships in Sri Lankan ports have rattled India.
Afghanistan will continue to be ruled by the Taliban as there are no signs of a resistance force gathering momentum in the near future that can oust them so New Delhi will have no choice but to deal with them clandestinely without giving them official recognition. Year 2023 will prove to be a game-changing year for bilateral ties between New Delhi and Kabul when the Embassy of Afghanistan had to temporarily shut down as diplomats appointed by the former republic left and handed over to the consuls general even as the infighting between the diplomats reached its peak.
Elections will also be held in Pakistan in 2024. With the ousting of Imran Khan and the arrival of former PM Nawaz Sharif from a four-year self-imposed exile from London. Sharif has been already praising India and its growth giving out signals of a possible rapprochement with India if he comes back to power again. However, Article 370 abrogation continues to remain an irritant between the two and to have any kind of talks with India, Pakistan will have to come to terms with what happened in August 2019.
Last but certainly not at all the least, China will give India more sleepless nights in the coming year as President Xi Jinping has already made it clear by not attending the G-20 Summit that he is upset with New Delhi. The military standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) may expedite the process of the creation of theatres for the Indian armed forces. But New Delhi has to chalk out an intelligent and innovative strategy to counter an increasingly assertive Beijing.
Going forward, India’s relation with Russia will also be seen through the American prism and relations between Modi and President Vladimir Putin may also see some kind of moderation.
Considering all the challenges listed above, the year 2024 will prove to be the most challenging for India’s foreign policy which might well change some of its broad contours as New Delhi looks at making new allies while reviewing the old ties.
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